多参数非线性零维气候系统的研究
THE RESEARCH OF NONLINEAR ZERO-DIMENSIONAL CLIMATE SYSTEM WITH MANY PARAMETERS
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摘要: 在Budyko零维模式的基础上, 提出了多参数非线性零维气候模式,并讨论地球放射率、反照率、大气透射率对气侯系统性态行为的影响。结果表明:各参数之间的约束关系决定了系统平衡态的大小及其稳定性。 太阳辐射I0和光学厚度的增大、云放射率的增大或云量的增大均是导致气候异常的重要因素。 行星反射率α0、大气放射率及CO2放射率的增大则可有利于气候的稳定。所以,对气候态的稳定性而言CO2的增加可能是一有利因素。 反照率线性负反馈则可使定态温度比Budyko的有所下降,非线性反馈与CO2、水汽及云共同作用时,可使CO2、水汽、云对温度的正反馈机制有所收敛。Abstract: On the basis of Budyko's zero-dimensional model, a nonlinear zero-dimensional climate model with many parameters is advanced, and the effect of radiation rate, reflection rate and transparency of atmosphere on the action of climate system are discussed. Having considered the effect of different parameters, some conclusions of analysis are presented as follows: The limits among parameters restrict the equilibrium state and stability of system. The increase of solar radiation, optics thickness, and cloud are all the important factors which might lead to changes of climate. The increase of planetary reflection, radiating rate of atmosphere and Carbon dioxide would benefit the stability of climate, so the increase of Carbon dioxide would be an advantageous factor to the stability of climate. Linear negative feedback of reflection might make the globe temperature decrease comparing with Budyko' and nonlinear feedback would restrain the positive feedback of Carbon dioxide,vapor and cloud.
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Key words:
- nonlinear /
- reflection rate /
- radiation rate /
- climate state
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