人造台风模型及资料同化对T213L31模式台风路径预报能力的影响

麻素红; 王建捷; 万丰

人造台风模型及资料同化对T₂₁₃L₃₁模式台风路径预报能力的影响

1.
中国科学院大气物理研究所, LASG, 北京, 100029;国家气象中心, 北京, 100081
2.
国家气象中心, 北京, 100081

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2005-12-15
- 修回日期: 2006-03-10

THE EFFECTS OF BOGUS TYPHOON AND THE OBSERVATION DATA IN THE OCEAN ON T₂₁₃L₃₁'S ABILITY OF TC TRACK PREDICTION

1.
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics, LASG, Beijing 10081, China
2.
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, LASG, Beijing 10081, China

摘要

摘要: 利用2003年台风季节T₂₁₃L₃₁的12时10天预报分析了国家气象中心全球中期数值预报模式系统T₂₁₃L₃₁对台风路径的预报能力,并就如何改进其对台风路径的预报能力进行了探讨。结果表明,在台风季节,T₂₁₃L₃₁模式在近57%的预报中对台风路径有预报,但初始位置误差较大。没有预报的区域主要集中在13～20°N,120°E以东的台风生成较为集中的地方,而此区域恰好不存在常规观测资料。对于目前仍采用OI分析的T₂₁₃L₃₁中期预报系统,常规观测资料在此区域的匮乏是其在此台风集中生成区预报能力较弱的主要原因。为了改进T₂₁₃L₃₁对台风路径的预报能力,本文就增加常规观测、加入人造台风模型进行了数值试验。试验结果显示,有限的常规观测对T₂₁₃L₃₁对台风的预报能力有明显提高。人造台风的加入无疑会改善T₂₁₃L₃₁在无常规资料区的预报,也会改善T₂₁₃L₃₁在资料较丰富地区的短期台风路径预报能力(36小时以内预报),而对较长时效预报的影响则有好有坏。
- 人造台风模型 /
- T₂₁₃L₃₁模式 /
- 台风路径预报 /
- 观测资料 /
- 资料同化
Abstract: The abilities of TC track prediction by the medium-range forecast model T₂₁₃L₃₁ in NMC are analyzedand the methods on how to improve its TC forecasts are discussed. The results show that about 57% of TCs couldbe predicted by T₂₁₃L₃₁ but the initial position errors are bigger. The 43% area without the prediction of TC tracksis concentrated between 13～20°N and 120°E and lack of conventional observation data is the main reason forthe absence of TC prediction in this area. The adding of Bogus TC could improve the ability of TC track prediction when there is no TC vortex in the analysis field, but could only have positive affects on the short-range TC track prediction when there is TC vortex in the T₂₁₃L₃₁ analysis field.
- T₂₁₃L₃₁ Model /
- TC's tracks /
- observation data /
- data assimilation /

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参考文献(9)

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