2002~2004年广东电力负荷的变化特征及预测
THE VARIABILITY CHARACTERISTICS AND PREDICTION OF GUANGDONG ELECTRICAL LOAD DURING 2002~2004
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摘要: 利用2002~2004年广东逐日电力负荷资料,采用小波分析、相关分析等方法研究了广东电力负荷的变化特征及与气象因子的关系,并采用最优子集回归方法建立了预测方程。结果表明,广东电力负荷具有非常明显的线性增长趋势,季节变化明显。存在明显的5~7天的准单周振荡,10~20天的准双周振荡及30~60天左右的季节内振荡。它们主要由大气低频振荡及节假日的影响所致。广东电力负荷在周日具有较明显的下降,春节期间呈明显的漏斗状分布,“五一”、“国庆”长假期间最低值主要出现在1~2日,3日以后逐渐恢复到正常状态。与我国其它地区一样,广东电力负荷对温度的变化最敏感,温度是其主要的影响因子,在不同的季节与不同的气象因子还有一定的关系。用最优子集回归方法建立的回归方程并考虑工作日、节假日期间的影响,对夏季峰值、春节谷值、“五一”、“国庆”期间的变化均有较好的拟合与预测。Abstract: The variability characteristics of Guangdong daily electrical load from 2002 to 2004 and itsconnection to meteorological variables are analyzed with wavelet analysis and correlation analysis. Predictionequations are established using optimization subset regression. The results show that the linear increasingtrend is very significant and seasonal change is obvious. The electrical load exhibits significant quasi-week(5~7 days) oscillation, quasi-two weeks (10~20 days) oscillation and intraseasonal (30~60 days)oscillation. These oscillations are caused by atmospheric low frequency oscillation and public holidays. Thevariation of Guangdong daily electrical load is obviously in decrease on Sundays, shaping like a funnelduring Chinese New Year in particular. The minimum is found at the first and second day and the electricalload gradually increases to normal level after the third day during the long vacation of Labor Day andNational Day. Guangdong electrical load is the most sensitive to temperature, which is the main affectingfactor, as in other areas in China. The electrical load also has relationship with other meteorological elementsto some extent during different seasons. The maximum of electrical load in summer, minimum duringChinese New Year and variation during Labor Day and National Day are well fitted and predicted using theequation established by optimization subset regression and accounting for the effect of workdays andholidays.
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