华南地区未来地面温度和降水变化的情景分析

黄晓莹; 温之平; 杜尧东; 许吟隆

华南地区未来地面温度和降水变化的情景分析

1.
广州中心气象台, 广东, 广州, 510080;中山大学环境科学与工程学院大气科学系, 广东, 广州, 510275
2.
中山大学环境科学与工程学院大气科学系, 广东, 广州, 510275
3.
广东省气候与农业气象中心, 广东, 广州, 510080;中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/农业部农业环境与气候变化重点开放实验室, 北京, 100081
4.
中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/农业部农业环境与气候变化重点开放实验室, 北京, 100081

基金项目: 国家科技攻关2004BA611B02课题;中英气候变化合作研究项目共同资助

计量
- 文章访问数: 1083
- HTML全文浏览量: 1
- PDF下载量: 1569
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2007-01-15
- 修回日期: 2008-01-28

SCENARIO ANALYSES ON THE CHANGES OF FUTURE SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CHINA

1.
Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080, China;Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
2.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
3.
Climatic and Agrimeteorological Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510080, China;Key Laboratory of Agro-Environment & Climate Change, Ministry of Agriculture, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of
4.
Key Laboratory of Agro-Environment & Climate Change, Ministry of Agriculture, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

摘要

摘要: 利用英国Hadley气候预测和研究中心的区域气候模式系统PRECIS,模拟分析基于政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)2000年发布的《排放情景特别报告》(SRES)中设计的B2情景下华南区域2071～2100年的温度和降水量的可能变化,结果显示:2071～2100年均地面温度相对于气候基准时段(1961～1990年)上升约2～4℃;华南区域未来夏季降水量在22°N以北区域较气候基准时段增加,而以南区域减少;冬季降水则表现为华南区域较气候基准时段减少。2071～2100年华南区域的温度气候趋势系数为正值,年均降水气候趋势系数为负值。2071～2100年的高温事件和强降水事件的发生频率均比气候基准时段明显增加。
- PRECIS /
- SRESB2情景 /
- 华南地区 /
- 地面温度 /
- 降水 /
- 气候变化
Abstract: Based on the results simulated by PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies),which is developed in the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research,changes of surface air temperature and precipitation under SRES B2 scenario in South China during 2071～2100 are analyzed.It is shown that,compared to baseline(1961～1990),surface air temperature in 2071～2100 would increase by 2～4 ℃,precipitation in summer would increase in the north part to 22 °N,while the precipitation in winter would decrease in the whole areas of South China.The climate trend of the surface air temperature would be positive,however the climate trend of the precipitation would be negative,the occurrence frequency of extremely high temperature events and extremely heavy precipitation events would increase.
- PRECIS /
- SRES B2 /
- South China /
- surface air temperature /
- precipitation /
- climate change

HTML全文

参考文献(22)

[1]	IPCC.Climate Change 2001:The Scientific Basis[M].HOUGHTON J T,et al.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001:881.
[2]	IPCC.Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis-Summary for Policymakers//Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007:18.
[3]	陈新光,钱光明,陈特固,等.广东气候变暖若干特征及其对气候带变化的影响[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(6):547-552.
[4]	涂方旭,李耀先,覃峥嵘,等.广西温度的气候变化分析[J].广西气象,2000,21(3):33-40.
[5]	吴滨.福建省50年气候变化特征[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2005.
[6]	吴胜安,张永领,杨金虎.海南岛最高和最低温度的非对称变化[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(6):667-671.
[7]	刘学华,季致建,吴洪宝,等.中国近40年极端温度和降水的分布特征及年代际差异[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(6):618-624.
[8]	任嵩.华南沿海近42年来的气候变化[J].气象,2002,28(6):52-55.
[9]	王志伟,唐红玉,李芬.近5O年中国华南雨涝变化特征分析[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(1):87-92.
[10]	JONES R G,NOGUER M,HASSELL,D C,et al.Generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS[R].Exeter:Met Office Hadley Centre,2004:35.
[11]	GIORGI F.Sensitivity of simulated summertime precipitation over the western United States to different physics parameterizations[J].Mon Wea Rev,1991,119(12):2 870-2 888.
[12]	赵宗慈,罗勇.东亚夏季风的模拟研究--3个区域气候模式的对比[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(增刊):124-133.
[13]	魏和林,符淙斌,王维强.区域气候模式侧边界的处理对东亚夏季风模拟的影响[J].大气科学,1998,11(5):779-790.
[14]	赵宗慈,罗勇.区域气候模式在东亚地区应用研究--垂直分辨率与侧边界对夏季季风降水影响研究[J].大气科学,1999,23(5):522-532.
[15]	GAO Xuejie,ZHAO Zongci,DING Yihui,et al.Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2001,18(6):1 224-1 230.
[16]	GAO Xuejie,ZHAO Zongci,GIORGI F.Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2002,19(5):927-942.
[17]	高学杰,赵宗慈,丁一汇.区域气候模拟对温室效应引起的中国西北地区气候变化的数值模拟[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(2):165-169.
[18]	NAKI?ENOVI? N,ALCAMO J,DAVIS G,et al.Special Report on Emissions Scenarios[M] //A Special Report of Working Group Ⅲ of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2000:1-599.
[19]	许吟隆,Richard J.利用ECMWF再分析数据验证PRECIS对中国区域气候的模拟能力[J].中国农业气象,2004,25(1):5-9.
[20]	许吟隆,黄晓莹,张勇,等.PRECIS对华南地区气候模拟能力的验证[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2007,46(5):93-97.
[21]	许吟隆,黄晓莹,张勇,等.中国21世纪气候变化情景的统计分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2005,1(2):78-83.
[22]	许吟隆,张勇,林一骅,等.利用PRECIS分析SRES B2情景下中国区域的气候变化响应[J].科学通报,2006,51(17):2 068-2 074.