COMPARED ANALYSIS CHARACTERISTICS OF IMPACT OF LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION ON THE PERSISTENT HEAVYRAINS IN POST-FLOOD SEASON IN SOUTH CHINA ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
-
摘要: 利用1961—2008年NCEP逐日、逐月再分析资料和全国和华南各省台站逐日降水资料，得到华南后汛期持续性暴雨74例，其中热带气旋 (TC) 引起的持续性暴雨 (TCR) 有54例，季风引起的持续性暴雨 (MSR) 有20例。TCR主要发生在8月，占TCR总数的52%，MSR主要发生在7月，占MSR总数的70%。两类持续性暴雨的出现次数具有明显的年代际变化特征，自1980年代以来发生的次数明显增加。通过对比分析得到，MSR主要由前期和同期热带中东太平洋异常海温持续偏暖所致，其一方面加强了南海夏季风环流、水汽辐合异常增强；另一方面增强了菲律宾海的对流，使得高空西风急流位置偏北；在两者的共同作用下，大气环流激发出“-、+、-”的EAP遥相关型波列分布，为7月持续性暴雨的发生提供有利条件。相比之下，TCR主要由于8月局地海温-黑潮区海温异常偏冷致使高空西风急流位置偏北所致。此外，叠加在这种尺度背景下，导致MSR和TCR发生的关键是10~20天季节内振荡导致系统由东南向西北传播。Abstract: Based on the NCEP daily and monthly reanalysis data and the daily rainfall records from 743 stations and South China stations in China during 1961—2008, it is found that there exist 74 persistent heavy rainscases in post-flood season in South China, including 54 cases caused by tropical cyclones (TCR) and 20 cases caused by monsoon (MSR). For the TCR mode, it mainly occurred in August, which accounts for about 52 percent of the total numbers of TC persistentheavy rains.For the MSR mode, it mainly happened in July, which account for about 70 percent of the total numbers of monsoon persistentheavy rains. It illustrates obvious interdecadalincreasing variation characteristics since 1980 for both two modes. When the continuous warm surfaces sea temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Middle and East tropical Pacific happened in the preceding and simultaneous period, the South China Sea summer monsoon circulation canbe strengthened, which resulting in the water vapor abnormal convergence. In addition, the SSTA may lead to the westerly jet positionmore northwardthroughenhancing the convection of the Philippine Sea.Such environmental conditions favor "-, +, -" Meridional wave train anomalies teleconnection pattern for MSR in July. By contrast, TCRinAugust is attributed to the westerly jet more northward position, caused by local cold SST anomalies such as like the kuroshio area SST. Superimposed on the large scale circulation, 10~20-day intraseasonal oscillation propagation characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented wave train patternis mainly responsible for MSR and TCR.
-
图 3 华南MSR与850 hPa风场、水汽场 (a) 和200 hPa风场相关 (b) 以及110~150 °E纬向平均的纬向风场 (c)、垂直速度场 (d)、水汽场 (e) 和500 hPa高度场（f）垂直相关分布
箭头矢量和阴影分别代表风场和各要素场通过0.05置信水平检验。
图 5 华南TCR与850 hPa风场、水汽场 (a) 和200 hPa风场相关 (b) 以及110~150 °E纬向平均的风场 (c)、垂直速度场 (d) 和水汽场 (e) 垂直相关分布
箭头矢量和阴影分别代表风场和各要素场通过0.05置信水平检验。
表 1 两类持续性暴雨发生时间分布和年代分布
暴雨的持续性 MSR (20次) TCR (54次) 主要生成月份 (次数, 百分比) 7月 (4次, 占70%) 8月 (28次, 占52%) 其余发生月份 (次数) 8月 (4次), 9月 (2次) 7月 (11次), 9月 (13次) 1961—1979发生次数 (百分比) 6次 (30%) 19次 (35%) 1980—2008发生次数 (百分比) 14次 (70%) 35次 (65%) 
下载: 导出CSV
表 2 两类暴雨与华南降水相关
华南降水 MSR (7月) MSR (总) TCR (8月) TCR (总) 7月总降水 0.41 后汛期总降水 -0.05 8月总降水 0.49 后汛期总降水 0.10
下载: 导出CSV
-
[1] 陶诗言. 1994年东亚夏季风活动的异常与华南特大洪涝灾害Ⅰ——大气环流的异常[M]//1994年华南特大暴雨洪涝学术研讨会论文集.北京:气象出版社, 1995: 1-5. [2] 孙颖, 丁一汇. 1997年东亚夏季风异常活动在汛期降水中的作用[J].应用气象学报, 2002, 13(3): 277-287. [3] 吴尚森. 1994年华南特大暴雨的气候背景[M]//1994年华南夏季特大暴雨研究.薛纪善主编, 北京:气象出版社, 1996: 23-30. [4] 李玉兰, 杜长萱, 陶诗言. 1994年东亚夏季风活动的异常与华南的特大洪涝灾害Ⅱ——1994年两广特大暴雨的天气学分析[M]//1994年华南特大暴雨洪涝学术研讨会论文集.北京:气象出版社, 1995: 6-13. [5] 吕梅, 成新喜, 陈中一, 等.1994年华南暴雨期间夏季风的特征及其对水汽的输送[J].热带气象学报, 1998, 14(2): 135-141. [6] SCHMIDLI J, FREI C. Trends of heavy precipitation and wet and dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th century[J]. Inter J Climatol, 2005, 25:753-771. [7] TANG Y, GAN J, ZHAO L, et al. On the climatology of persistent heavy rainfall events in China[J]. Adv Atmos Sci 2006, 23(5): 678-692. [8] REN F, CUI D, GONG Z, et al. An objective identification technique for regional extreme events[J]. J Clim, 2012, 25(20): 7 015-7 027. [9] CHEN Y, ZHAI P M. Persistent extreme precipitation events in China during 1951—2010[J]. Clim Res, 2013, 57(2): 143-155. [10] WU H, ZHAI P M. Changes in persistent and non-persistent flood season precipitation over South China during 1961—2010[J]. Atca Meteor Sinica 2013, 27(6): 788-798. [11] 鲍名.近50年我国持续性暴雨的统计分析及其大尺度环流背景[J].大气科学, 2007, 31(5): 779-792. [12] 吴丽姬, 温之平, 贺海晏, 等.华南前汛期区域持续性暴雨的分布特征及分型[J].中山大学学报 (自然科学版), 2007, 46(6): 108-113. [13] 邱军, 李江南, 梁毅进, 等.广东省持续性暴雨的气候特征[J].热带地理, 2008, 28(5): 405-410. [14] 胡亮, 何金海, 高守亭.华南持续性暴雨的大尺度降水条件分析[J].南京气象学院报, 2007, 30(3): 345-351. [15] CHEN Y, ZHAI P M. Precursor circulation features for persistent extreme precipitation in centra-Eastern China[J]. Wea Forec, 2014, 29(2): 226-240. [16] CHEN Y, ZHAI P M. Two types of typical circulation pattern for persistent extreme precipitation in centra-Eastern China[J]. Q J R Meteorol Soc, 2014, 140(682): 1 467-1 478. [17] CHEN Y, ZHAI P M. Mechanisms for concurrent low-latitude circulation anomalies responsible for persisten extreme precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley[J]. Clim Dyn 2015, 1-18, DOI10.1007/s00382-015-2885-6. [18] HONG W, REN X J. Persistent heavy rainfall over South China during May-August: Subseasonal anomalies of circulation and sea surface temperature[J]. Acta Meteor Sinica, 2013, 27(6): 769-787. [19] 洪伟, 任雪娟, 杨修群.华南持续性强降水期间低频非绝热加热对低频振荡环流的影响[J].气象学报, 73(2): 276-290. [20] 史学丽, 丁一汇. 1994年中国华南大范围暴雨过程的形成与夏季风活动的研究[J].气象学报, 2000, 55(6): 666-678. [21] 曹鑫, 任雪娟, 孙旭光.江淮流域夏季持续性强降水的低频特征分析[J].气象科学, 2013, 33(4): 362-370. [22] 纪忠萍, 谷德军, 吴乃庚, 等.广东省前汛期暴雨与500 hPa关键区准双周振荡[J].应用气象学报, 2010, 21(6): 671-684. [23] LAU K M, YANG G J, SHEN S H. Seasonal and intraseasonal climatology of summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 2001, 116(1): 18-37. [24] ANNAMALAI H, SLINGO J M. Active/break cycles: diagnosis of the intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon[J]. Clim Dyn, 2001, 18(1): 85-102. [25] LAU K M, CHAN P H. Intraseasonal and interannual variations of tropical convection: A possible link between the 40~50 day oscillation an ENSO?[J]. J Atmos Sci, 1988, 45(3): 506-521. [26] HSU H H, WENG C H. Northward propagation of intraseasonal oscillation in the western North Pacific during the boreal summer: Structure and mechanism[J]. J Clim, 2001, 14(18): 3 834-3 850. [27] 温之平, 董灵英, 吴丽姬, 等.大气30~60天振荡特征及其与广东持续性强降水的联系[J].中山大学学报 (自然科学版), 2007, 46(5): 98-103. [28] 林爱兰, 梁建茵, 李春晖, 等. "0506"华南持续性暴雨的季风环流背景[J].水科学进展, 2007, 18(3): 424-432. [29] 黄忠, 张东, 林良勋.广东后汛期季风槽暴雨天气形势特征分析[J].气象, 2005, 31(9): 19-23. [30] 卢山, 吴乃庚, 薛登智.南海季风槽影响下热带气旋暴雨增幅的研究[J].气象, 2008, 34(6): 53-59. [31] 王捷纯, 江吉喜.热带气旋登陆华南前后的强降水大尺度环境场特征[J].应用气象学报, 2006, 17(3): 287-295. [32] SMITH T M, REYNOLDS R W. Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854—1997)[J]. J Clim, 2004, 17(12): 2 466-2 477. [33] TRENBERTH K E. Signal versus noise in the Southern Oscillation[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 1984, 112(2): 326-332. [34] GILL A E. Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation[J]. Q J Roy Meteor Soc, 1980, 106(449): 447-462. [35] 吴尚森, 梁建茵, 李春晖.南海夏季风强度与我国汛期降水的关系[J].热带气象学报 (增刊), 2003, 19(1): 25-37. [36] 黄荣辉.引起我国夏季旱涝的东亚大气环流异常遥相关及其物理机制的研究[J].大气科学, 1990, 14(1): 108-117. [37] 黄荣辉, 孙凤英.北半球夏季遥相关型的年际变化及其数值模拟[J].大气科学, 1992, 16(1): 52-61. [38] 黄荣辉, 孙凤英.热带西太平洋暖池的热状态及其上空的对流活动对东亚夏季气候异常的影响[J].大气科学, 1994, 18(2) : 141-151. [39] LU R Y. Associations among the components of the East Asian Summer Monsoon System in the meridional direction[J]. J Meteor Soc Japan, 2004, 82(11): 155-165. [40] 李麦村, 吴仪芳, 黄嘉佑.中国东部季风降水与赤道东太平洋海温的关系[J].大气科学, 1987, 11(4): 365-375. [41] KEMBALL C S, WANG B. Equatorial waves and air-sea interactions in boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations[J]. J Clim, 2001, 14(13): 2 923-2 942. [42] 卫玮, 黄卓禹.夏季东亚高空西风急流气候特征分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象, 2012, 6(4): 21-26. [43] KRISHNAMURTI T N, ARDANUY P. The 10 to 20 day westward propagating modes and breaks in the monsoons[J]. Tellus, 1980, 32(1): 15-26. [44] CHEN T C, MURAKAMI M. The 30~50 day variation of convective activity over the western Pacific Ocean with emphasis on the northwestern region[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 1988, 116(4): 892-906. [45] LAWRENCE D M, WEBSTER P J. The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation: Relationship between northward and eastward movement of convection[J]. J Atmos Sci, 2002, 59(9): 1 593-1 606. [46] CHEN T C, CHEN J R. An observational study of the South China Sea monsoon during the 1979 summer: Onset and life cycle[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 1995, 123(8): 2 295-2 318. [47] MAO J Y, CHAN J C L. Intraseasonal variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon[J]. J Clim, 2005, 18(18): 2 388-2 402. [48] KAJIKAWA Y, YASUNARI T. Interannual variability of the 10~25-and 30~60-day variation over the South China Sea during boreal summer[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2005, 32(4): 319-324. L04710, doi:10.1029/2004GL021836. [49] YANG J, WANG B, WANG B. Anticorrelated intensity change of the quasi-biweekly and 30~50-day oscillations over the South China Sea[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2008, 35(16): 797-801. L16702, doi:10.1029/2008GL034449. [50] CHEN T C, YEN M C, WENG S P. Interaction between the summer monsoon in East Asia and the South China Sea: Intraseasonal monsoon modes[J]. J Atmos Sci, 2000, 57(9): 1 373-1 392. [51] LI T, WANG B. A review on the western North Pacific monsoon: Synoptic-to-interannual variabilities terrestrial[J]. Atmos Ocean Sci, 2005, 16(2): 285-314. [52] ZHOU C, LI T. Upscale feedback of tropical synoptic variability to intraseasonal oscillations through the nonlinear rectification of the surface latent heat flux[J]. J Clim, 2010, 23(21): 5 738-5 754. -
点击查看大图
图(9) / 表(2)
计量
- 文章访问数: 762
- HTML全文浏览量: 25
- PDF下载量: 501
- 被引次数: 0
粤公网安备 4401069904700003号