CLIMATIC EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DIPOLE MODE OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN
-
摘要: 利用1960年1月—2008年12月共49 a的SODA资料和滑动EOF方法,对热带印度洋海表面温度异常 (SSTA) 偶极子模态 (IODM) 的气候演变特征进行了分析。结果表明:(1) 热带印度洋SSTA在间隔1 a,长度为10 a的滑动过程中IODM空间型经历了由南北向偶极子向东西向偶极子分布的演变,并非总是呈东西向的分布;(2) 在南北向偶极子期间,10 °S以北 (以南) 的热带印度洋SST总体上是降温 (升温) 的,而在东西向偶极子期间,热带东 (西) 印度洋SST总体上呈现准年代际尺度的升 (降) 温与降 (升) 温交替变化特征;(3) IODM还存在4次明显的准年代际变化,时间分别出现在1976、1987、1994和2005年;(4) IODM的方差贡献率与滑动EOF第一模态间有一种反位相变化的趋势。Abstract: Based on a total of 49a SODA data from January 1960 to December 2008, the climatic evolution characteristics of the tropical Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM) of sea surface temperature are studied. The main results are as follows:(1) The IODM spatial patterns derived from the moving EOF (empirical orthogonal function) with 1a interval and 10a length do not always show the well-known distribution of the east-west dipole, but has an evolution from a south-north dipole to an east-west one; (2) In the case of the south-north dipole, the SST north (south) of 10 °S shows overall warming (cooling). For the east-west dipole, meanwhile, the SST in the tropical eastern (western) IO shows alternate variations of warming (cooling) and cooling (warming) on quasi-decadal timescales; (3) There are also four quasi-decadal variations in IODM, occurring in 1976, 1987, 1994 and 2005 respectively; (4) There is a reverse trend between the variance rate of the second mode (the IODM) and that of the first mode, in moving EOF.
-
Key words:
- tropical Indian Ocean /
- SSTA /
- moving EOF /
- IODM /
- spatial-temporal evolution
-
图 8 图 1中相邻两空间场值之差 (单位:℃) 的分布
a. 18-17;b. 19-18;c. 26-25;d. 37-36。数字代表时段序号。
图 9 图 8中4次变化前后的相邻模态差值场的Cramer检验
红、蓝色区域分别为正负显著区,信度为0.05。
-
[1] SCHOTT F A, XIE S P, MCCREARY J P. Indian Ocean circulation and climate variability[J]. Reviews of Geophysics, 2009, 47, RG1002, doi:10.1029/2007RG000245. [2] LATIF M, DOMMENGET D, DIMA M, et al. The role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature in forcing east African rainfall anomalies during December-January 1997/1998[J]. J Clim, 1999, 12(12): 3 497-3 504. [3] WEBSTER P J, MAGANA V O, PALMER T N, et al. Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction[J]. J Geophys Res: Oceans (1978-2012), 1998, 103(C7): 14 451-14 510. [4] ASHOK K, GUAN Z, YAMAGATA T. Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Australian winter rainfall[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2003, 30. 1821, doi:10.1029/2003GL017926. [5] 吴国雄, 刘平, 刘屹岷, 等.印度洋海温异常对西太平洋副热带高压的影响-大气中的两级热力适应[J].气象学报, 2000, 58(5): 513-522. [6] 张卫青, 钱永甫.赤道中印度洋夏季变温对中国夏季降水影响的数值模拟[J].大气科学, 2002, 26(1): 91-101. [7] HU R J, LIU Q Y, MENG X F, et al. On the mechanism of the seasonal variability of SST in the tropical Indian Ocean[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2005, 22(3): 451-462. [8] YANG M Z, DING Y H, LI W J, et al. The leading mode of Indian Ocean SST and its impacts on Asian summer monsoon[J]. Acta Meteor Sin, 2008, 22(1): 31-41. [9] 蒋贤玲, 巩远发, 马国柱, 等.夏季热带印度洋大气热源主模态与中国东部降水的关系[J].热带气象学报, 2013, 29(5): 841-848. [10] YANG J, LIU Q, XIE S P, et al. Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2007, 34, L02708, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028571. [11] GODFREY J S, ALEXIOU A, ILLAHUDE A G, et al. The role of the Indian Ocean in the global climate system: Recommendations regarding the global ocean observing system[R]. U S A: Report of the ocean observing system development panel. Texas A & M University, College Station, 1995: 1 289. [12] SAJI N H, GOSWAMI B N, VINAYACHANDRAN P N, et al. A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean[J]. Nature, 1999, 401(6 751): 360-363. [13] WEBSTER P J, MOORE A M, LOSCHNIGG J P, et al. Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98[J]. Nature, 1999, 401(6 751): 356-360. [14] 肖莺, 张祖强, 何金海.印度洋偶极子研究进展综述[J].热带气象学报, 2009, 25(5): 621-627. [15] 李东辉, 张瑰, 朱益民, 等.热带印度洋秋季偶极子模态与南海夏季风强度变化的关系[J].热带气象学报, 2006, 22(5): 439-446 [16] GUAN Z Y, YAMAGATA T. The unusual summer of 1994 in East Asia: IOD teleconnections[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2003, 30(10): 511-514. [17] LI C Y, MU M Q. The influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on atmospheric circulation and climate[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 2001, 18(5): 831-843. [18] 张晓玲, 肖子牛, 李跃凤. ENSO背景下印度洋偶极子海温异常对中国冬季降水的影响[J].热带气象学报, 2012, 28(5): 621-632. [19] 闫晓勇, 张铭.赤道东太平洋海温异常期间印度洋偶极子对东亚季风区影响的数值模拟[J].热带气象学报, 2004, 20(4): 375-382. [20] YAMAGATA T, BEHERA S K, RAO S A, et al. Comments on "Dipoles, temperature gradients, and tropical climate anomalies" [J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 2003, 84(10): 1 418-1 422. [21] 赵永平, 陈永利, 王凡, 等.热带印度洋Dipole事件的两种模态[J].中国科学 (D辑), 2008, 38(10): 1 318-1 328. [22] LI T, WANG B, CHANG C P, et al. A theory for the Indian Ocean Dipole-Zonal Mode[J]. J Atmos Sci, 2003, 60(17): 2 119-2 135. [23] 华莉娟, 俞永强, 尹宝树.热带印度洋偶极子模态的不对称性及其成因的数值研究[J].大气科学, 2010, 34(6): 1 046-1 058. [24] TOZUKA T, LUO J J, MASSON S, et al. Decadal modulations of the Indian Ocean dipole in the SINTEX-F1 coupled GC[J]. J Clim, 2007, 20(13): 2 881-2 894. [25] ABRAM N J, GAGAN M K, COLE J E, et al. Recent intensification of tropical climate variability in the Indian Ocean[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2008, 1(12): 849-853. [26] NAKAMURA N, KAYANNE H, IIJIMA H, et al. Mode shift in the Indian Ocean climate under global warming stress[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2009, 36, L23708, doi:10.1029/2009GL040590. [27] DU Y, XIE S P, CAI W, et al. A new type of the Indian Ocean dipole since the mid-1970s[J]. J Clim, 2013, 26(3): 959-972. [28] 袁媛, 李崇银.热带印度洋偶极子与ENSO事件关系的年代际变化[J].科学通报, 2008, 53(12): 1 429-1 436. [29] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社, 2007. [30] WANG B, AN S I. A method for detecting season-dependent modes of climate variability: S-EOF analysis[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 2005, 32(15): 1-4. [31] 符淙斌, 王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学, 1992, 16(4): 482-493. [32] CARTON J A, GIESE B S. A reanalysis of ocean climate using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA)[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 2008, 136(8): 2 999-3 017. [33] 吴洪宝, 吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京:气象出版社, 2005. [34] TORRENCE C, COMPO G P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1998, 79(1): 61-78. [35] TRENBERTH K E, HURRELL J W. Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific[J]. Clim Dyn, 1994, 10(9): 303-319. [36] WANG D X, WANG J, WU L X, et al. Relative importance of wind and buoyancy forcing for interdecadal regime shifts in the Pacific Ocean[J]. Science in China (D), 2003, 46(5): 417-427. [37] 杨修群, 朱益民, 谢倩, 等.太平洋年代际振荡的研究进展[J].大气科学, 2004, 28(6): 979-992. [38] 武炳义, 张人禾. 20世纪80年代后期西北太平洋夏季海表温度异常的年代际变化[J].科学通报, 2007, 52(10): 1 190-1 194. [39] TOKYO CLIMATE CENTER. TCC News[N]. Japan: Tokyo Climate Center, 2006. [40] JM AGENCY. Climate change monitoring report 2005[R]. Japan: Japan Meteorological Agency, 2006. -