西北太平洋海温增暖对热带气旋潜在破坏力的影响：高分辨模式个例分析

伊兰; 孙源; 钟时; 胡轶佳

doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2017.03.003

西北太平洋海温增暖对热带气旋潜在破坏力的影响：高分辨模式个例分析

doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2017.03.003

伊兰¹,
孙源^2, ,,
钟时³,
胡轶佳²

1.
中国气象学会/中国气象科学研究院，北京 100081
2.
解放军理工大学气象海洋学院，江苏南京 211101
3.
河海大学水文水资源学院，江苏南京 210098

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金青年基金 41605072

江苏省自然科学基金青年基金 BK20160768

详细信息

通讯作者:
孙源，男，安徽省人，讲师，博士，主要从事热带气旋数值模拟研究。E-mail: sunyuan1214@126.com

中图分类号: P444
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-08-24
- 修回日期: 2017-01-08
- 刊出日期: 2017-06-01

IMPACT OF WARMER OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: ANALYSIS OF HIGH-RESOLUTION CASE SIMULATIONS

Lan YI¹,
Yuan SUN^{2
, ,},
Shi ZHONG³,
Yi-jia HU²

1.
Chinese Meteorological Society/Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
2.
College of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China
3.
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Center for Global Change and Water Cycle, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

摘要

摘要: 以三个西北太平洋热带气旋（TC）为例，利用WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式进行了一系列海表温度（SST）敏感性数值试验，揭示了西北太平洋SST增暖对TC的强度、尺度及潜在破坏力的影响及其机理。结果表明，在距TC中心100 km以内区域的SST升高有利于TC强度增加，但会减小TC内核尺度；而在距TC中心100 km以外的SST升高并不会使TC强度明显增加甚至使TC强度减弱，但同时会增加TC内核尺度。伴随着低层向眼墙的入流，升高的外区SST会使TC区表层的大气温度和湿度升高，造成眼墙附近海气温差和湿度差及向内的气压梯度力减小，进而减少进入TC眼墙内的感热和潜热，不利于TC增强，但有利于眼墙向外移动，使TC内核尺度增加。内区SST升高与外区SST升高对TC强度及尺度变化的作用机理相反。因此，当TC移过冷或暖洋面时，TC的强度和尺度的变化不仅取决于局地洋面的冷或暖状况，还取决于TC内区和外区SST的差异。由于TC内区和外区SST对TC强度和内核尺度的不同作用，可能存在一个临界范围，当暖池范围在这个临界范围之内时TC潜在破坏力随暖池范围的扩大而增大，但当暖池范围超过这个临界范围时TC潜在破坏力便不会随着暖池范围的继续扩大而增大，甚至会有所减小。
- 热带气旋 /
- 潜在破坏力 /
- 海表温度 /
- 敏感性分析 /
- 气候变化
Abstract: To reveal the impact of increased sea surface temperature (SST) on TC destructive potential over the western North Pacific(WNP), a series of SST sensitivity experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is conducted for three tropical cyclone (TC) cases in the WNP. The results show that, the SST increases over different radial extents play different roles in determining TC intensity, size, and potential destructiveness. The inner SST increase within approximately 100 km of TC center promotes TC intensification, but reduces TC inner-core size. In contrast, the outer SST beyond 100 km of the TC center contributes greatly to the growth of TC inner-core size, but reduces TC intensity. Further analysis indicates that, as the inflow air moves towards the eyewall, warmer outer SST can gradually increase the underlying surface air temperature and moisture, reduce the inward-directed pressure gradient near the eyewall, and thus decrease the air-sea temperature and moisture differences, which will lead to less sensible and latent heat fluxes entering the eyewall and then decrease the TC intensity, but with an outward centrifugal displacement of eyewall and thus an increase in the TC inner-core size. The opposite happens as the inner SST increases. Therefore, when a TC moves across a warm/cold pool, the changes of TC intensity and size are determined by not only the conditions of local SST, but also the SST difference between the inner and outer TC regions. Due to the different effects of inner-SST and outer-SST on TC intensity and inner-core size, the TC potential destructiveness does not monotonically increase with the expansion of the ocean warm pool. There exists a critical range of the ocean warm pool. The TC potential destructiveness may not increase and may even decrease once the size of ocean warm pool exceeds the critical range.
- tropical cyclone /
- destructive potential /
- sea surface temperature(SST) /
- sensitivity analysis /
- climate change

HTML全文

图 1 三个TC个例控制试验中的TC路径与CMA-STI最佳路径集路径分布

a. Songda; b. Megi; c. Vongfong。

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 三个TC个例敏感性试验中TC潜在破坏力（PD，等值线，单位：10¹³ J）与SST暖池的半径（横坐标）和增温幅度（纵坐标）的关系分布

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 三个TC个例敏感性试验中模拟时段平均海平面最低气压（MSLP，a~c，单位：hPa）、表面10 m最大风速（MWS，d~f，单位：m/s）和最大风速半径（RMW，g~i，单位：km）与SST暖池的半径（横坐标）和增温幅度（纵坐标）的关系分布

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 三个TC个例敏感性试验中模拟时段平均最大风速半径（RMW，单位：km）与TC潜在破坏力（PD，单位：10¹³ J）的分布关系散点图

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 三个TC个例暖池SST增加2 ℃试验中模拟时段时间平均和切向平均后的感热通量（sensible heat flux，SHF，a~c）和潜热通量（latent heat flux，LHF，d~f）的径向分布

单位：W/s²。横坐标代表TC中心距离。

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 三个TC个例暖池SST增加2 ℃试验中模拟时段时间平均和切向平均后的海气温度差（a~c，单位：℃）和海气湿度差（d~f，单位：g/kg）的径向分布

横坐标代表TC中心距离。

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 三个台风个例的控制试验设置

TC名	Songda(2004)	Megi(2010)	Vongfong(2014)
母网格中心经纬度	137.5 °E, 28 °N	127 °E, 22 °N	137.66 °E, 25.47 °N
母网格数	221×205	159×179	252×164
两重网格使用的物理方案	WSM3简单冰微物理方案^[17] KFEX积石参数化方案^[18] MYJ边界层方案^[19-20]	Thmopson物理方案^[21]、KFEX积云参数化方案^[18]以及MYJ边界层方案^[19-20]	WSM3简单冰微物理方案^[17] KFEX积云参数化方案^[18] YSU边界层方案网^[22]
母网格模拟时间	2004年8月26日00时-9月7日00时（12天）	2010年10月14日00时-23日00时（9天）	2014年10月1日00时-14日00时（13天）
子网格模拟时间	2004年8月30日18时-9月7日00时（7天）	2010年10月15日00时-23日00时（8天）	2014年10月6日00时-14日00时（8天)

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