热带地区出射长波辐射的长程持续性研究

雷亚栋; 张峰; 杨全; 张敬昕; 蒋磊; 刘仁强

doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2017.03.013

热带地区出射长波辐射的长程持续性研究

doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2017.03.013

雷亚栋¹,
张峰^{1, 2, ,},
杨全¹,
张敬昕¹,
蒋磊³,
刘仁强¹

1.
南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室，江苏南京 210044
2.
中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京100081
3.
南京信息工程大学海洋科学学院，江苏南京 210044

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41305004

国家自然科学基金项目 91537213

国家自然科学基金项目 41575040

中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题 2016LASW-B07

详细信息

通讯作者:
张峰，男，浙江省人，博士，主要从事大气辐射和气候变化研究。E-mail：feng_zhang126@126.com

中图分类号: P422
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-11-19
- 修回日期: 2016-12-19
- 刊出日期: 2017-06-01

Long-Term Memory Behaviors For Outgoing Longwave Radiation in the Tropics

1.
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing 100081, China
3.
College of Marine Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

摘要

摘要: 为了探索热带地区出射长波辐射（OLR）的内在变化规律，利用去趋势波动分析（DFA）方法，对整个热带地区（0~357.5 °E，22.5 °S~22.5 °N）1979—2013年NOAA逐日的OLR资料进行分析。研究结果表明：整个热带地区的OLR存在幂律相关，其标度指数值主要集中在0.65~0.72之间，具有较好的长程相关性（或持续性）。西太平洋、刚果盆地和南美洲因对流发展旺盛，导致上空高云量偏大，OLR值主要取决于云顶温度和云量，而云本身变化较快，使得该地区OLR表现出较弱的长程持续性；中东太平洋、大西洋和撒哈拉沙漠地区上空高云量偏少，OLR值主要取决于海表或陆表的温度，而海表或陆表温度变化相对比较缓慢，使得该地区OLR表现出较强的长程持续性。此外，通过随机打乱逐日OLR时间序列去除趋势和相关性，进一步验证了热带地区OLR的长程持续性是由时间序列的分形特征造成的。
- 出射长波辐射（OLR） /
- 长程持续性 /
- 去趋势波动分析（DFA）
Abstract: In order to explore inner change patterns of OLR over the tropics, daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) records (1979—2010) from NOAA are analyzed by using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method. The results indicate that the OLR over the tropics is power-law correlation and the value of scaling exponents is between 0.65 and 0.72 in most of the cases. Therefore, the OLR has strong long-range correlation (or consistency). The value of the OLR mainly depends on the cloud-top temperature and cloudiness due to strong convection in the western Pacific, the Congo Basin and South America. The clouds of these are asvary rapidly, which results in a weak long-term memory of the OLR in these regions. While the value of the OLR in the Middle East Pacific, Atlantic Ocean and Sahara Desert mainly relys on the sea surface or the land surface temperature, since the sea surface or land surface temperature barely change, which makes the OLR show a strong long-term memory. In addition, the long-term memory behaviors of the OLR in the tropics are caused by the fractal characteristics of time series, and further proved by randomly disrupting the time series to remove trends and correlation.
- outgoing longwave radiation /
- long-term memory /
- detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA)

HTML全文

图 1 1979—2013年热带地区OLR年平均计算结果单位：W/m²。

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 热带地区A（a、c）、B（b、d）两个格点去除季节循环的时间序列（a、b）及累积离差（c、d）分布

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 热带地区A（a、c）、B（b、d）两个格点OLR的DFA分析结果

空心圆线为DFA2得到的分布曲线，直线为空心圆线的线性拟合线。

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 热带地区OLR标度指数分布

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 热带地区高云的气候态分布特征

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 整个热带地区OLR随机打乱前（a）、后（b）的标度指数概率密度分布

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 整个热带地区OLR随机打乱前、后的标度指数主要参数

主要参数	平均值	标准差	最大值	最小值
原始序列	0.69	0.06	0.92	0.54
随机打乱之后的序列	0.50	0.01	0.58	0.46

下载: 导出CSV

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