SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF HAZARD-INDUCING TROPICAL CYCLONES UNDER THE 1.5℃ AND 2.0℃ GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS IN SOUTHEAST COASTAL CHINA
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摘要: 将造成经济损失的热带气旋定义为致灾气旋。基于气象观测站的逐日气压、风速和降水量数据确定致灾气旋阈值，结合区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)在1961—2100年的输出资料，预估致灾气旋发生频数及其风速与降水量，分析全球升温1.5 ℃与2.0 ℃情景下，中国东南沿海地区致灾气旋时空变化特征。结果表明：(1) 1986—2015年，东南沿海地区致灾气旋发生频数共计180个，整体呈上升趋势，平均风速和降水量分别为8.7 m/s和129.8 mm，对浙江东部及广东东部沿海影响最严重。(2)全球升温1.5 ℃，2020—2039年致灾气旋频数将由基准期(1986—2005年)的111个上升至138个，增加区域主要位于广东省西南地区及福建省南部地区；平均风速和降水量分别上升15%和17%，至8.4 m/s和109.9 mm，以福建省沿海地区增加最明显。(3)全球升温2.0 ℃，2040—2059年致灾气旋频数较1986—2005年增加33%，将达148个；风速上升32%，以浙江省东部、福建和广东省接壤的沿海地区及广东省南部增幅最大；降水量上升35%，以福建与广东省接壤的沿海地区及广东省西南地区增加明显。(4)相比升温1.5 ℃，全球气温额外升高0.5 ℃，东南沿海地区致灾气旋频数及其风速与降水量将分别上升9%、17%和18%。努力将温升控制在1.5 ℃，对降低致灾气旋频率和强度增加所导致的影响具有重要意义。
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关键词:
- 全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃ /
- 致灾气旋 /
- 时空变化 /
- CCLM模式 /
- 东南沿海地区
Abstract: Based on the data of tropical cyclones (TCs) in China for 1986—2015, TCs that caused economic losses are defined as hazard-inducing TCs. The threshold of hazard-inducing TCs in southeastern coastal China is determined through observed daily air pressure, wind speed and precipitation data from meteorological stations. Subsequently, the frequency, wind speed and precipitation of hazard-inducing TCs are predicted by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM), and their spatiotemporal variations are analyzed under the 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming scenarios relative to the baseline period of 1986—2005. Research results are shown as follows: (1) The frequency of hazard-inducing TCs in southeast coastal China shows an increasing trend from 1986 to 2005. Observed average wind speed and precipitation are 8.7 m/s and 129.8 mm, respectively. The influenced areas are mainly distributed in the east of Zhejiang province and the east coast of Guangdong province. (2) Under the 1.5 ℃ warming scenario of 2020—2039, the frequency of hazard-inducing TCs will increase by 24% relative to 1986—2005, and the increase is mainly distributed in the southwest part of Guangdong and the southern part of Fujian. Meanwhile, wind speed and precipitation by TCs will increase by 15% and 17%, respectivley, which is most significant in the coastal areas of Fujian. (3) Under the 2.0 ℃ warming scenario of 2040—2059, the frequency of hazard-inducing TCs will increase by 33% relative to the reference period of 1986—2005, and wind speed will increase by 32%. Precipitation will increase by 35%, with the neighboring area of coastal Fujian and Guangdong and the southwest Guangdong having the largest growth rate. (4) With the global temperature increase from 1.5 ℃ to 2.0℃, the frequency of hazard-inducing TCs will continue to rise, and the accompanying wind speed and precipitation might also increase by 17% and 18%, respectively. The aforementioned findings revealed that the frequency, wind speed, precipitation and influential area of hazard-inducing TCs in the southeastern coast of China will increase with the rising of temperature. It is significant to control global temperature increase below 1.5 ℃ for reducing the adverse effects of hazard-inducing TCs. -
图 4 1986—2005年东南沿海致灾气旋风速(a)与降水量(b)的观测值和CCLM输出
箱线图中水平横线为逐年致灾气旋气象要素的中位数；线框为上下四分位；延长线的上、下边界分别表示最大值和最小值。
表 1 1986—2015年浙江、福建和广东省致灾气旋风速、降水与气压阈值
地区 观测值 CCLM模拟值 风速/(m/s) 降水量/mm 气压/hPa 风速/(m/s) 降水量/mm 气压/hPa 浙江省 5 60 990 5 45 990 福建省 6 60 990 7 50 990 广东省 5 65 1000 7 60 1000 
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