TREND ANALYSIS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE SUB-REGIONS OF HUNAN PROVINCE IN THE PAST 54 YEARS
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摘要: 基于湖南省89个气象站点1960—2013年的冬季降水观测数据，应用旋转经验正交函数（REOF）和层次聚类法（HCA）对湖南省冬季降水进行分区，并在分区的基础上，运用离散小波变换结合Mann-Kendall（MK）和Sequential MK（SQMK）的方法，讨论湖南省各分区冬季降水的变化趋势，并识别影响各自变化趋势的主周期分量。结果表明：（1）REOF的前3个旋转空间模态揭示湖南省冬季降水存在3个主要的异常敏感区：湘南、湘西北及湘中；（2）湖南省冬季降水在空间上可划分为5个一致性子区域：湘西北区（DJF1）、湘西-湘北区（DJF2）、湘西南-湘中区（DJF3）、湘南丘陵区（DJF4）和湘南山地区（DJF5），且每一子区域从西南向东北呈带状展布；（3）近54年来，5个子区的冬季降水均表现出增加趋势但各区存在差异，其中，湘西南-湘中区、湘南丘陵区和湘南山地区均呈显著的上升趋势；（4）D1分量是影响湖南省不同区域冬季降水变化趋势的最占优的周期分量，揭示湖南省的冬季降水变化趋势存在准2年的主周期。Abstract: In this study, the hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) coupled with rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF) is applied to form sub-regions based on the winter precipitation data of 89 meteorological stations in Hunan Province during the period 1960-2013. Then, the method, combined with discrete wavelet transform, Mann-Kendall (MK) and sequential MK (SQMK), is used to analyze the trend of precipitation change and identify the most dominant periodic components that affect winter precipitation trends in each sub-region. The results are as follows. (1) The first three rotated EOF modes reveal three principal precipitation anomaly sensitive areas in Hunan Province: south Hunan, northwest Hunan and central Hunan. (2) Winter precipitation in Hunan can be divided into five homogeneous and distinct regions: northwest Hunan (DJF1), west Hunan - north Hunan (DJF2), southwest Hunan - central Hunan (DJF3), hilly areas of south Hunan (DJF4), and mountain areas of south Hunan (DJF5). And each of sub-regions is extended belt-like from southwest to northeast. (3) In the past 54 years, winter precipitation has an increasing trend in each of five sub-regions, but these trends are different from each other. The southwest Hunan - central Hunan, hilly areas of south Hunan and mountainous areas of south Hunan exhibit a statistically significant upward trend. (4) The wavelet component D1 is the most effective periodic components affecting the winter precipitation trends in the different regions of Hunan Province. It suggests that 2-year periodic events are the main driver behind the observed trend of precipitation in Hunan Province.
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Key words:
- winter precipitation /
- regionalization /
- trend analysis /
- Hunan Province
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表 1 EOF和REOF前3个模态的方差贡献及累计方差贡献(%)
模态 EOF REOF 方差贡献 累积方差贡献 方差贡献 累积方差贡献 1 67.83 67.83 75.35 75.35 2 12.47 80.30 5.64 80.99 3 5.19 85.49 4.50 85.49 
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表 2 各分区的面积和区域平均冬季降水量
分区名称 气象站点数 区域面积/km2 面积百分比/% 区域平均冬季降水/mm DJF1 20 54265.05 25.05 134.03 DJF2 19 54871.94 25.33 173.18 DJF3 18 41310.85 19.07 197.93 DJF4 17 37104.75 17.13 205.47 DJF5 15 29075.57 13.42 208.24
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表 3 各分区的最佳db小波类型和最优分解层
分区名称 最佳db类型 最优分解层 MRE er DJF1 db1 3 0.25 0.50 DJF2 db8 2 0.21 1.26 DJF3 db2 3 0.23 0.004 DJF4 db7 2 0.24 0.06 DJF5 db10 3 0.34 0.04
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表 4 各分区单个分量和不同Dj+AJ分量与原始降水序列u(t)值间的RMSE和R以及各自的MK-Z值
Data DJF1 DJF2 DJF3 DJF4 DJF5 Z RMSE R Z RMSE R Z RMSE R Z RMSE R Z RMSE R original 0.75 - - 0.62 - - 2.21* - - 2.68* - - 2.65* - - D1 0.06 1.33 0.41* 0.44 0.70 0.57* 0.00 1.28 0.16 0.08 1.92 0.35* 0.03 2.09 0.27 D2 -0.04 1.41 0.26 -0.25 0.95 0.56* 0.46 1.07 0.42* 2.81* 1.65 0.41* 0.11 1.77 -0.54* D3 0.28 1.47 0.37* - - - 0.35 1.32 0.01 - - - -0.20 1.69 0.02 A2 - - - 1.40 2.47 0.68* - - - 2.84* 1.80 0.77* - - - A3 1.12 1.75 0.79* - - - 2.22* 2.82 0.79* - - - 2.54* 4.34 0.76* D1+A2 - - - 0.66 0.68 0.90* - - - 1.68 0.32 0.92* - - - D2+A2 - - - 1.00 0.92 0.94* - - - 2.37* 1.25 0.84* - - - D1+A3 0.85 0.60 0.83* - - - 2.42* 0.60 0.84* - - - 1.36 0.49 0.83* D2+A3 1.10 0.99 0.83* - - - 2.37* 1.35 0.87* - - - 1.90 2.49 0.80* D3+A3 1.59 1.25 0.92* - - - 2.87* 2.11 0.84* - - - 1.67 1.92 0.74* 注：加粗字体为最匹配原始序列变化趋势的Dj+AJ分量，带*的值均通过了0.05的显著性水平检验。
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