ENSO发展年与衰减年夏季环境要素对热带气旋生成频数变化的贡献

杜新观; 余锦华

doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2020.024

ENSO发展年与衰减年夏季环境要素对热带气旋生成频数变化的贡献

doi: 10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2020.024

杜新观,
余锦华^,

南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，江苏南京 210044

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41575083

国家自然科学基金项目 41730961

详细信息

通讯作者:
余锦华，女，安徽省人，教授，博士研究生导师，从事热带气旋、极端天气气候等方面的研究。E-mail: jhyu@nuist.edu.cn

中图分类号: P444
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-10-12
- 修回日期: 2020-01-12
- 刊出日期: 2020-04-01

CONTRIBUTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS TO THE CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY IN THE SUMMER OF ENSO DEVELOPING AND DECAYING YEARS

Xin-guan DU,
Jin-hua YU^,

Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/ Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

摘要

摘要: 利用中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone，TC)最佳路径数据集和欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA再分析资料，分析了El Niño-South Oscillation (ENSO)发展年与衰减年西北太平洋(Western North Pacific，WNP)夏季(6—8月)总TC生成频数(Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency，TCGF)及其区域性特征，通过潜在生成指数(Genesis Potential Index，GPI)定量诊断各环境要素对TCGF变化的贡献。结果表明，西北太平洋TCGF总数异常在ENSO各位相并不显著，但其东南象限和西部的TCGF异常存在明显差异。在ENSO各位相，GPI异常的空间分布与TCGF异常的空间型相似。同一区域，各环境要素对TCGF异常的贡献不同，反映了ENSO不同位相影响TC生成变化的机理存在差异。WNP东南部(SEWNP)是对ENSO较敏感的区域，El Niño发展年，中东太平洋异常增暖激发的Rossby波西传导致SEWNP受异常正涡度环流控制，涡度对TCGF增加的贡献最大；El Niño衰减年，西北太平洋出现低层异常反气旋，其东侧异常东北气流将湿度相对较低的水汽输送至SEWNP，相对湿度降低导致TCGF显著减少。La Niña发展年，绝对涡度减小和垂直风切变增加对TCGF减少都有影响。WNP西部仅在La Niña衰减年出现TCGF显著负异常，低层绝对涡度减小的贡献最大，因为季风槽减弱，抑制了南海附近的TC生成。
- 热带气旋生成频数 /
- ENSO /
- 环境要素 /
- 潜在生成指数
Abstract: This paper is to study the characteristics of tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) and Genesis Potential Index (GPI) and to diagnose the contribution of environmental factors to the change of GPI over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the summer of ENSO developing and decaying years, based on the data from the CMA and the ECMWF. Although there exists no significant change in the total TCGF in the WNP, the TCGF shows differences in southeastern WNP (SEWNP) and western WNP (WWNP). The TCGF pattern is similar to the GPI pattern in all phases and the SEWNP is sensitive to ENSO. Various contributions of environmental factors indicate that there are different reasons for TCGF change in all four phases. During El Niño developing years, the TCGF increases abnormally in this area because of the increasing absolute vorticity and the decreasing vertical wind shear (VWS). In this phase, Rossby waves are triggered by El Niño and thus there is an anomalous cyclone and easterly monsoon trough in the SEWNP. During El Niño decaying years, WNPAC-induced anomalous northeast wind delivers climatological dry air to SEWNP, which is the main factor for the decrease of TCGF. In La Niña developing years, absolute vorticity and VWS are main factors. In western WNP, there is only a significantly negative phase of TCGF during La Niña decaying years due to the diminishing absolute vorticity.
- tropical cyclone genesis frequency /
- ENSO /
- environmental factors /
- genesis potential index

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图 1 1971—2017年各月Niño3.4指数

黑色柱形为当年夏季(6—8月)。

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 ENSO发展年与衰减年西北太平洋夏季TC生成频数异常(a~f)与气候态分布(g)

黑色与灰色方框分别为通过α=0.05显著性检验的正异常与负异常区域。单位：频次/年。

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图 3 1971—2017年夏季ENSO发展年与衰减年潜在生成指数异常

打点区域为通过α=0.05显著性检验区域。

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 1971—2017年夏季ENSO发展年与衰减年垂直风切变(填色)(a，c，e)、850 hPa风场(矢量)、600 hPa相对湿度(填色)和850 hPa相对涡度异常(等值线)(b，d，f)

打点与灰色阴影区域分别为填色标量场与等值线通过α=0.05显著性检验的区域，矢量场仅显示通过α=0.05显著性检验的区域。

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表 1 1971—2017年ENSO发展年与衰减年

ENSO位相	年份
El Niño发展年(El Niño DV)	1972，1982，1987，1991，1994，1997，2002，2009，2015
El Niño衰减年(El Niño DC)	1973，1983，1988，1992，1995，1998，2003，2010，2016
La Niña发展年(La Niña DV)	1973，1975，1984，1988，1995，1999，2007，2010，2011，2017
第1类La Niña发展年(La Niña DV1)	1973，1988，1995，2010
第2类La Niña发展年(La Niña DV2)	1975，1984，1999，2007，2011，2017
La Niña衰减年(La Niña DC)	1971，1974，1976，1985，1989，1996，2000，2008，2012

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表 2 1971—2017年夏季ENSO发展年与衰减年西北太平洋TC生成频数异常

ENSO位相	总TC(TS及以上)	强TC(TY及以上)
气候态	11.43	6.04
El Niño DV	+1.13	+1.74^*
El Niño DC	-1.98	-1.82^*
La Niña DV	-1.23	-1.74^*
La Niña DV1	-1.67	-1.54
La Niña DV2	-0.93	-1.88^*
La Niña DC	+1.24	+1.40
其中^*表示通过α=0.05显著性检验。

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 ENSO发展年与衰减年夏季西北太平洋环境要素异常

SEWNP	δh₁	δh₂	δh₃	δh₄	δGPI	WWNP	δh₁	δh₂	δh₃	δh₄	δGPI
El Niño DV	0.65(53.81%)	0.30(24.96%)	-0.11(-8.78%)	0.36(30.00%)	1.20^*	El Niño DV	0.07(-9.48%)	-0.36(50.36%)	-0.13(18.22%)	-0.29(40.91%)	-0.72^*
El Niño DC	-0.14(16.98%)	-0.49(57.55%)	-0.05(6.17%)	-0.16(19.30%)	-0.85^*	El Niño DC	-0.14(-18.21%)	0.05(6.17%)	0.20(26.71%)	0.64(85.33%)	0.75^*
La Niña DV	-0.40(31.12%)	-0.35(27.90%)	-0.04(2.86%)	-0.48(38.12%)	-1.27^*	La Niña DV	-0.13(-22.55%)	0.27(47.17%)	0.13(21.98%)	0.30(53.40%)	0.57
La Niña DV1	-0.34(23.02%)	-0.63(42.54%)	-0.02(1.51%)	-0.49(32.93%)	-1.49^*	La Niña DV1	-0.26(-32.25%)	0.17(20.99%)	0.27(33.76%)	0.62(77.50%)	0.80
La Niña DV2	-0.43(38.27%)	-0.17(14.99%)	-0.05(4.05%)	-0.48(42.69%)	-1.12^*	La Niña DV2	-0.04(-9.88%)	0.33(81.35%)	0.03(6.60%)	0.09(21.92%)	0.41
La Niña DC	-0.27(58.24%)	-0.24(52.74%)	0.10(-22.68%)	-0.05(11.69%)	-0.46	La Niña DC	-0.11(55.12%)	-0.03(12.77%)	-0.01(3.89%)	-0.06(28.22%)	-0.20
其中西北太平洋东南部(SEWNP)为140 °E~180 °，5~15 °N，西北太平洋西部(WWNP)为110~140 °E，5~20 °N，括号内为各项对于相对贡献率，^*表示通过α=0.05显著性检验。

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