SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF NEAR-SURFACE WIND IN QINGDAO COASTAL AREA BASED ON WRF MODEL
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摘要: 沿海地区受风的影响较大，不仅受大尺度季风的影响还受到中小尺度局地风的影响，利用WRF模式从参数化组合方案、土地利用数据、水平网格精度以及耦合UCM四个方面对青岛沿海地区近地面风进行了模拟和比较。结果表明，微物理方案和边界层方案对研究区近地面风的影响较大，WSM3 + YSU + Revised MM5 Monin-Obukhov + KF的参数化组合方案对研究区的模拟效果较好，相关系数在0.50~0.75之间，均方根误差在1.44~1.61之间。LUCC2015和TM2015土地利用数据能够更好地反映研究区的土地利用类型的分布特征，两者的模拟效果优于MODIS2001和MODIS2013。随着水平分辨率的提高，对地形刻画越精准，模拟效果越好，并且WRF+UCM方案能显著降低城市地区近地面风速，优化模拟结果。沿海地区近地面风的影响因素较为复杂，考虑模式的参数化方案组合、土地利用数据、地形和城市等多种因素，以期为沿海地区近地面风的模拟提供依据。Abstract: Coastal areas are greatly affected by wind, not only by large-scale monsoon but also by small and medium-scale local wind. The WRF model is used to test the effects of parametric combination scheme, land use, horizontal grid accuracy and coupled UCM on near-surface wind in coastal areas. The results show that the microphysical scheme and the boundary layer scheme have a greater impact on the near-surface wind in the study area. The parameterized combination scheme of WSM3+YSU+REVISED MM5 MONIN-OBUKHOV+KF is the best for the simulation of the study area. The correlation coefficient is between 0.50 and 0.75, and the root mean square error is between 1.44 and 1.61. LUCC2015 and TM2015 land use data can better reflect the distribution characteristics of land use types in the study area, which are better than MODIS2011 and MODIS2013. With the improvement of horizontal resolution, the more accurate the terrain is, the better the simulation results, and the WRF+UCM scheme can significantly reduce the near-surface wind speed in urban areas and optimize the simulation results. The factors influencing the coastal wind in coastal areas are quite complicated. This paper considers a variety of factors such as model parameterization scheme combination, land use data, terrain and city, in order to provide a basis for the simulation of near-surface coastal wind.
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Key words:
- near-surface wind /
- WRF model /
- sensitivity analysis /
- Qingdao coastal area
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表 1 敏感性实验的参数化方案设计
试验序号 微物理过程 边界层 近地面方案 积云方案 1 WSM6 YSU Revised MM5 Monin-Obukhov KF 2 WSM6 YSU Revised MM5 Monin-Obukhov New Grell 3 WSM6 MYJ Monin-Obukhov KF 4 WSM6 MYJ Monin-Obukhov New Grell 5 WSM6 Bougeault and Lacarrere Revised MM5 Monin-Obukhov KF 6 WSM6 Bougeault and Lacarrere Revised MM5 Monin-Obukhov New Grell 7 WSM3 YSU Revised MM5 Monin-Obukhov KF 8 WSM3 YSU Revised MM5 Monin-Obukhov New Grell 9 WSM3 MYJ Monin-Obukhov KF 10 WSM3 MYJ Monin-Obukhov New Grell 11 WSM3 Bougeault and Lacarrere Revised MM5 Monin-Obukhov KF 12 WSM3 Bougeault and Lacarrere Revised MM5 Monin-Obukhov New Grell 
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表 2 不同方案模拟结果的比较
方案 青岛站 胶州站 即墨站 CC RMSE CC RMSE CC RMSE 1 0.22 2.20 0.57 2.27 0.79 1.88 2 0.42 1.77 0.58 2.16 0.61 2.07 3 0.51 2.28 0.70 1.81 0.77 1.89 4 0.46 2.43 0.63 2.00 0.78 1.90 5 0.43 3.03 0.68 1.79 0.80 2.27 6 0.50 3.69 0.47 2.68 0.57 3.08 7 0.50 1.49 0.75 1.61 0.73 1.44 8 0.47 1.52 0.75 1.60 0.72 1.45 9 0.44 2.25 0.76 1.68 0.74 1.94 10 0.44 2.23 0.76 1.64 0.75 1.89 11 0.47 2.66 0.78 1.48 0.73 2.24 12 0.47 2.66 0.79 1.42 0.73 2.25
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表 3 土地利用类型重分类
土地利用分类 MODIS2001 MODIS2013 LUCC2015 TM2015 常绿针叶林 1 1 1 常绿阔叶林 2 2 2 落叶针叶林 3 3 3 落叶阔叶林 4 4 21 4 混交林 5 5 23、24 5 封闭灌丛 6 6 22 6 稀疏灌丛 7 7 7 木本稀疏草原 8 8 8 热带稀疏草原 9 9 9 草地 10 10 31、32、33 10 永久湿地 11 11 45、46、64 11 农用地 12 12 11、12 12 城市建设用地 13 13 51、52、53 13 农用地和植被拼接 14 14 14 冰和雪 15 15 44 15 稀疏植被与裸地 16 16 61、62、63、65、66 16 水体 17 0 41、42、43、99 17 森林苔原 18 18 混合苔原 19 19 裸地苔原 20 67 20
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表 4 不同空间分辨率模拟结果的比较
方案 青岛站 胶州站 即墨站 CC RMSE CC RMSE CC RMSE d01 0.37 2.89 0.73 1.50 0.73 1.70 d02 0.37 2.88 0.79 1.43 0.73 2.03 d03 0.47 2.27 0.77 1.45 0.77 1.55
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表 5 不同月份模拟效果的比较
青岛站 胶州站 即墨站 CC RMSE CC RMSE CC RMSE 1月 0.60 1.78 0.70 2.53 0.71 1.75 4月 0.47 2.27 0.77 1.45 0.77 1.55 7月 0.57 1.14 0.68 2.00 0.65 2.94 10月 0.66 2.59 0.67 1.78 0.75 1.63
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