ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF UNDERLYING SURFACE ON THE NORTHWARD-TRAVELING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IN THE BOHAI COASTAL REGION
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摘要: 利用统计分析结合数值模拟试验的方法，研究1949—2019年6—9月登陆北上后影响环渤海地区的热带气旋（后统称TC）所经下垫面和强度变化的不同特征，及环渤海地区下垫面对TC强度加强的可能影响。结果表明：71年间共有25例TC影响环渤海地区，按照首次登陆点的不同将其分为山东及山东以北登陆（第一类，11个），以及山东以南登陆（第二类，14个）两类，第一类TC北上时路径所经下垫面为先海洋后陆地，发生变性的几率较小且北上后无加强，第二类路径所经下垫面为先陆地后海洋，移入环渤海区域后发生变性的几率增大且存在强度加强现象，其中加强的TC共5例；对第二类TC中强度加强的个例“温比亚（2018）”TC进行数值模拟试验表明，增加或降低黄渤海的海温时，TC均表现出加强趋势，将黄渤海修改为草地时，TC不再加强，而海陆分布指数的分析表明无论海温如何变化，TC由陆地移入海洋与强度加强趋势之间关系密切。以上表明TC由陆地移入黄渤海是产生强度增强趋势的主要原因。Abstract: Based on statistical analyses and numerical simulations, the variation characteristics of tropical cyclones (referred to as TCs hereafter) intensity change in the Bohai coastal region were studied for June to September in 1949 to 2019. The impact of the underlying surface on the TCs intensity change was explored. The results are shown as follows. A totoal of 25 TCs reached the Bohai coastal region in the 71 years studied. Based on the first landfall location, the TCs were divided into two categories. Category one made landfall on Shandong province or north of it (11 cases), and Category two made landfall south of the province (14 cases). Category-one TCs passed the ocean first, and then landed as they moved northward. This category of TCs had less probability of extratropical transformation and did not strengthen as they headed north. The Category-two TCs landed first and then passed through the oceanic underlying surface. This kind of TCs had more probability of extratropical transformation and strengthening. There were a total of five Category-two TCs that strengthened. The numerical simulation of the strengthened TC "Rumbia (2018)" in Category two reveals that the TC strengthened with both increasing and decreasing sea surface temperature (SST) of Yellow and Bohai Seas, but the strengthening disappeared if the underlying surface of the marine areas was changed to grassland during the simulation. The analysis of a land-sea distribution index indicates that the migration of TCs from land to the ocean was closely related to the strengthening trend no matter how the SST changed. The above analysis reveals that the main reason of TC strengthening is that the TC moved into the areas of Yellow and Bohai Seas from land.
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图 2 从山东及山东以北登陆的TC路径分布图(a)以及从山东以南登陆的TC路径分布图(b)
图中不同颜色圆点代表TC定位点及不同的强度级别，红色TC符号代表TC变性（ET）。
图 4 2018年8月19日00时—20日18时“温比亚（2018）”TC控制试验及各敏感性试验与CMA/STI资料（a）路径
（6 h间隔）对比（b）近中心最大10 m风速（1 h间隔）对比
图 7 各试验TC中心300 km半径范围内3 km高度平均上升速度随时间的演变(a，单位：m/s)以及边界层1 km高度处平均的上升垂直质量通量随时间的演变(b，单位：kg/(m2·s))
图 8 各试验TC中心300 km半径范围内平均的表面温度（a，单位：K）、潜热通量（b，单位：W/m2）、感热通量（c，单位：W/m2）、2 m比湿（d，单位：g/kg）以及900 hPa水汽通量（e，单位：g/(cm·hPa·s)）随时间的演变
表 1 控制试验及敏感性试验方案设计
试验名称 试验描述 CTRL 控制试验 SSTH 渤海及黄海中北部海温增加3 ℃ SSTL 渤海及黄海中北部海温减小3 ℃ NOOC 渤海及黄海中北部海洋下垫面修改为草地 
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表 2 基于CMA/STI资料统计的在环渤海区域强度增强TC列表
TC编号 增强时是否发生变性 增强时是否在黄渤海区域 6小时强度变化最大值/(m/s) 195310 是 否 5 198407 否 否 6 198509 否 是 5 201814 否 是 5 201818 是 是 5
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