Definition of Extremely Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones over the South China Sea for Operational Forecasting
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摘要: 为得到适合业务使用的南海热带气旋(TC)极端快速加强(ERI)标准, 了解ERI TC的统计特征, 利用中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的1981-2022年西北太平洋TC最佳路径资料, 取TC强度变化最大值为样本, 对比分析了平均值法、百分位数法。(1)98百分位数定义的标准能较好地体现TC快速加强的极端性, 以及西北太平洋和南海TC强度发展程度上的差异, 在业务预报上的适用性较强。(2)南海ERI标准为强度加强不小于10 m·s-1·(6 h)-1、13 m·s-1·(12 h)-1、20 m·s-1·(24 h)-1。西北太平洋ERI标准为强度加强不小于10 m·s-1·(6 h)-1、20 m·s-1·(12 h)-1、30 m·s-1·(24 h)-1。(3)TC ERI是一个小概率事件, 在西北太平洋和南海分别占TC总数的12%和4%, 主要发生在菲律宾以东的135~145 °E, 15~20 °N洋面和20 °N附近的南海北部海面, 自20世纪90年代以来出现频率呈增加趋势。(4)南海出现ERI后的TC有72% 登陆我国, 登陆海南和广东的最多, 其中69%出现在2000年以后。南海ERI TC呈现距陆地近、登陆时间短、登陆强度强的特点。Abstract: The definition of extremely rapid intensification (ERI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) and the statistical characteristics of TCs that experienced ERI (ERI TCs) over the South China Sea (SCS) were studied using the best track dataset from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration for TCs during 1981-2022. ERI was defined as intensity increases of at least 10 m·s-1· (6 h)-1, 13 m·s-1·(12 h)-1, and 20 m·s-1·(24 h)-1 over the SCS and 10 m·s-1·(6 h)-1, 20 m·s-1·(12 h)-1, and 30 m·s-1· (24 h)-1 over the western North Pacific (WNP), which corresponds to the 98th percentile of maximum intensity change for all TCs. Compared with conventional methods, the proposed ERI definition better describes the extremity of rapidly intensifying TCs and the intensity development difference between TCs over the WNP and the SCS. This makes it more useful for TC operational forecasting. Only 12% of TCs over the WNP and 4% of TCs over the SCS underwent ERI, and they were mainly located over the region bounded by 135~145 °E, 15~20 °N and the northern SCS near 20 °N. 72% of ERI TCs over the SCS made landfall in China, mostly in Hainan and Guangdong provinces, and 69% of these landing TCs occurred after 2000. ERI TCs over the SCS exhibited characteristics of being close to land, with short landing time and strong landing intensity, which significantly increased the difficulty of TC forecasting and disaster mitigation.
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Key words:
- tropical cyclone /
- extremely rapid intensification /
- definition /
- South China Sea
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表 1 平均值法定义的各时段RI和ERI标准
标准类型 项目 6 h 12 h 24 h WNP 南海 WNP 南海 WNP 南海 RI ΔVmax(m·s-1) 8 6 13 9 19 13 百分比 15% 6% 12% 14% 17% 14% TC个数 163 29 13 63 181 64 ERI ΔVmax(m·s-1) 13 10 21 15 32 22 百分比 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 0.2% TC个数 8 12 21 9 12 1 
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表 2 不同百分位数定义的快速加强标准
百分位数 项目 6 h 12 h 24 h WNP 南海 WNP 南海 WNP 南海 95 ΔVmax/(m·s-1) 10 7 15 10 25 15 百分比 12% 6% 11% 14% 6% 5% TC个数 127 28 113 63 66 23 96 ΔVmax/(m·s-1) 10 8 17 12 25 15 百分比 12% 5% 4% 4% 6% 5% TC个数 127 21 44 19 66 23 97 ΔVmax/(m·s-1) 10 8 17 12 27 17 百分比 12% 5% 4% 4% 3% 4% TC个数 127 21 44 19 34 16 98 ΔVmax/(m·s-1) 10 10 20 13 30 20 百分比 12% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% TC个数 127 12 26 13 34 12 99 ΔVmax/(m·s-1) 12 10 20 15 32 20 百分比 1% 3% 2% 2% 1% 3% TC个数 12 12 26 9 24 12
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表 3 南海出现ERI后登陆我国的TC概况
TC ΔV 登陆点 ERI结束时距登陆点/陆地距离(km) ERI结束时距登陆时间(h) ERI结束时强度 登陆强度 1713“天鸽” 12 m·s-1·(6 h)-1 广东 60/40 2 Super TY STY 9106“季克” 海南 40/40 3 STY STY 8105“凯利” 海南 360/310 28 STY STY 2107“査帕卡” 广东 89/70 19 TY TY 2007“海商斯” 广东 180/150 10 TY TY 2006“米克拉” 福疰 0/0 0 TY TY 8616“韦恩” 海南 700/500 27 STY TY 0518“达维” 海南 190/190 14 STY STY 1409“成马逊” 15 m·s-1·(12 h)-1 海南 170/150 10 Super TY Super TY 1603“银河” 13 m·s-1·(12 h)-1 海南 50/50 2 STS STS 1522“彩虹” 20 m·s-1·(24 h)-1 广东 230/135 12 STY Super TY 1208“ 15森特” 广东 40/40 1 STY TY 8802“苏珊” 台湾 390/390 26 TY TY
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