EFFECTS OF QUASI-BIWEEKLY OSCILLATION OF TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE ON TYPHOON FORMATION IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC
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摘要: 利用美国海洋大气局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration，NOAA）逐日对外长波辐射（Outgoing Longwave Radiation，OLR)资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim再分析资料和美国联合台风预警中心（Joint Typhoon Warning Center，JTWC）台风路径最佳资料，考察了热带大气夏季准双周振荡（Quasi-biweekly Oscillation，QBWO）对西北太平洋台风生成的影响，揭示了QBWO对西北太平洋台风生成位置、频数和发生概率的显著影响。结果表明：（1）伴随QBWO对流活跃中心的西北方向的传播，西北太平洋台风生成位置也呈现相应移动；（2）QBWO对流活跃位相期间，台风频数偏多，发生概率偏高，而在QBWO对流抑制位相，台风频数偏少，发生概率偏低；（3）台风生成潜在指数（Genesis Potential Index, GPI）收支分析指出了对流层低层绝对涡度和中层相对湿度是调制整个海域台风生成的两个重要的大尺度环境因子；（4）GPI的收支分析还表明了大尺度环境因子对台风生成的影响对QBWO的位相与区域具有显著的依赖性。在QBWO对流活跃位相期间，南海中北部区域低层涡度对GPI正异常贡献最为显著；在菲律宾以东海域，对流层中层相对湿度对GPI正异常贡献最为显著；在关岛附近海域，主要的贡献来自于低层绝对涡度与非线性项，且它们对GPI负异常的贡献相当。在QBWO对流抑制位相，南海中北部区域GPI的负异常贡献主要来自于低层绝对涡度；在菲律宾以东海域GPI负异常贡献主要来自中层相对湿度；关岛附近海域的GPI正异常的主要贡献来自于垂直风切变和非线性项。Abstract: Using the daily OLR data from the NOAA, tropical cyclone data from the JTWC and the re-analysis data from ERA-interim, we investigated the modulation of QBWO on the boreal summer typhoon genesis over the western North Pacific during the period of 1979—2013. Three main findings are found in this study. First, more typhoons and larger genesis rates are found during the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) in convectively active phases compared to that during the convectively inactive phases. Second, the mid-level relative humidity and low-level vorticity appear to be the two important factors affecting typhoons associated with the QBWO based on analyses of genesis potential index. Third, the relative importance of environmental factors associated with the QBWO is dependent on the phases and regions. During the convectively active QBWO phase, low-level vorticity significantly contributes to the positive GPI anomalies over the middle-north part of the South China Sea (SCS). Over the east of Philippines, mid-level moisture plays an important role in contributing to the positive GPI anomalies. The GPI anomalies over the adjacent region of Guam are mainly from the low-level vorticity and nonlinear terms. In contrast, the negative GPI anomalies over the middle-north region of SCS is from the contribution of low-level vorticity, the negative GPI anomalies over the east of Philippines is from the mid-level moisture and the positive GPI anomalies over the adjacent region of Guam is from the contributions of vertical wind shear and nonlinear terms.
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图 7 1979—2013年期间5—10月QBWO对流活跃位相(a, c, e, g, i)与不活跃位相时(b, d, f, h, j) VOR项、RH项、PI项、Shear项和非线性项贡献的GPI异常合成分布图
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