预报台风路径的“RSWA”*方法性能分析
AN ANALYSIS ON“RSWA” CHARACTERISTICS IN THE PREDICTION OF TYPHOON PATH
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摘要: 本文通过大量样本计算分析,试图阐明“RSWA”台风路径预报方法的性能。得出预报结果的优劣主要依赖台风初始位置及前期路径的局部特征(如移动方向和速度),从而找出了“RSWA”的不足之处。并从预报误差方面展开了对模式性能的讨论。结果表明,“RSWA”用于预报台风路径,尤其是C类台风路径,具有一定参考价值,且比原方案优越。经分析表明,一个方法的预报误差,应由模式引起的误差(EM)和台风移动过程中诸因素引起的误差(ET)组成。而台风移动过程中所引起的误差应是依赖于台风初始定位、初始移动,台风Abstract: It is aimed in this paper that "RSWA" s characteristics in predicting typhoon paths are further revealed by bulk-sample-basis computation and analysis. Statistic analysis shows that reliability of its results depends to a large extent upon the initial position of typhoon and local features of its early path(e. g. direction and speed of motion). In this way, what is imperfect with "RSWA" is fornd, making it convenient for improvement in predicting accuracy in future.In the paper, characteristics of the model are discussed in terms of prediction error only. Results presented here indicate that "RSWA" can be relyed on to a certain degree in the prediction of typhoon path, particularly for Group C typhoons, having more advantages over the olc scheme.Analysis shows that causes leading to error in a prediction method should be made up of error due to model (EM) and error due to factors concerned with the motion of typhoon (ET), the latter being a continuous function of typhoon's initial location and motion, intensity and season of occurrence.
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