指数平滑法在趋势产量预测上的应用及广东省早稻产量预报模式
THE APPLY OF THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING IN TENDENCY YIELD AND THE FORCASTING METHOD ABOUT THE EARLY RICE IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE
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摘要: 本文介绍的产量预报方法是由趋势产量预报和气象产量预报两部份合成。其中趋势产量的分解及预测量采用系统预测方法中的三次指数平滑法进行,气象产量模式则是由一组时效不同、逐步迫近的非线性回归方程组构成。经试用效果甚佳。Abstract: In the paper,the yield forcasting method is made up of the tendency yield and the meteorological yield. The treatment of the tendency yield and the forcasting yield was used by the exponential smoothing method in systematic forcasting method. The meteorological yield forcasting method is expressed by a group of nonlinear regression equations which consist of the meteorology factor for early rice every growing term.
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