Abstract: The analyses in this paper deal with:(1) the regional distribution and interannual variations for the occurrences of severe convective storms in March and April in Guangdong, and(2) the correlation between the mean stability for stratified atmosphere in South China and the surface thermal condition during the same season. It concludes that a long-term forecast of the convection occurrences for the time can be converted to a forecast of thermodynamics for the lower atmosphere. Further exploitation reveals that Southern Oscillation, SST in the South China Sea,and intensity of the West Pacific Sub-tropical High are important restraints for spring temperature in Guangdong, stratification stability and occurrence variations of severe convection. The conclusion is used to develop a physically significant statistics equation for predicting the variation tendency of the occurrence for severe spring convection in Central and West Guangdong. It works well.