Abstract:
Using the data of SST and tropical storms for 1949-1987,the time-lag correlation is analysed between the frequency of occurrence for the tropical storms generating over or affecting the South China Sea(including those generating there and coming from the western Pacific) and the SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific.Statistics is obtained for the relat ion between the warm (El Nino) and cold (anti-El Nino) episodes and the two categories of tropical storms defined above.For the correlation between the SST and the frequency of occurrence of the storms affecting the sea,the preliminary result shows it tc be negative (-0.30) when they are in the same period,and maximum positive (+0.29) when the latter occur 17 months late than the former. In comparison,the correlation is indicated to be the maximum (+0.38) for the SST and the storms generating in the South China Sea when the latter appear 12 months late than the former,and insignificant when they are in the period.Statistics of the episodes of El Nino and anti-El Nino also confirms the characteristics. The results here have some value of reference for the forecast of longterm tendency of tropical storm in the South China Sea.