具有门限的一种非线性随机-动力模式
A NONLINEAR STOCHASTIC-DYNAMIC MODEL WITH THRESHOLD
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摘要: 提出一种附加门限控制的具有非线性反馈作用的随机-动力模式,从而对具有线性反馈的随机-动力气候模式加以改进。从理论上说,这种具有门限的随机气候模式可使气候系统内部反馈机制中的非线性特征更为明显,以便更加客观地模拟和预报短期的气候变化。Abstract: By adding threshold control to stochastic-dynamic climate models with linear feedback coefficients, the nonlinearity of model parameters can be more obvious. Theoretic and case verification all show that the more physically and dynamically based model is working well in simulating anomalous departures of multivariate stochastic-dynamic systems and especially better when they have obvious nonlinear feedback, leading to possible better simulation and forecast of short-term climate changes.
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Key words:
- Stochastic-dynamic model /
- Linear feedback /
- Non-linear feedback /
- Threshold
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