南海异常路径台风预报的数值试验
THE NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT TO PREDICT THE ABNORMAL TRACKS OF A SOUTH CHINA SEA TYPHOON
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摘要: 利用广州热带海洋气象研究所最近发展的热带有限区台风数值预报模式,对1991年登陆广东的9116号强热带风暴(Joel)进行了数值预报试验。结果表明:模型台风的加入,模式水平和垂直分辨率的提高,物理过程的完善,能大大提高台风路径的预报准确率。Abstract: Using a typhoon NWP model for limited tropical area recently up-dated by the institute, a prediction experiment is done with the strong tropical storm Joel (9116) which landed in Guangdong. The result shows that the forecast level of typhoon tracks can be greatly upgraded with the inclusion of model typhoon, the improvement of modelling and vertical resolution, and the perfection of model physics.
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Key words:
- Model typhoon /
- Abnormal tracks /
- Typhoon /
- Numerical experiment
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