北上热带气旋发展与不发展的对比分析
A CONTRAST ANALYSIS ON TWO NORTHWARD - GOING TROPICAL CYCLONES
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摘要: 重点分析了一个北上热带气旋(8509号台风)变性发展过程中扰动动能和扰动有效位能的收支平衡关系及其与中纬地区高空环境场、 矢量散度、旋度特征和锋生锋消现象的联系,并和与此台风前期路径及强度相似、但进入西风带后很快消失了的8406号台风的诊断结果进行了对比.结果表明:有利的大Abstract: In this paper, a northernward neutercane (8509) in its developing process was analysed by using diagnostic methods. The result was compared with another typhoon (8406) whose early path and intensity were similar to 8509 but not developed when it entered the westerly belt. The results show: (1) Advantageous large - scale environments was a very crucial factor and prerequisite condition for intensification of this neutercane when it interacted with westerlies frontal system; (2) In the early weakening stage of this typhoon, the exchange of EKE (eddy kinetic energy) with the environment was small and barotropic process was dominant. But in its developing stage, the EAPE (eddy available potential energy) increased rapidly. Large amount of EAPE was released and EKE generation by baroclinic process played a significant role. (3) The analyses of frontogenesis in low layer, environmental conditions in upper layer and Q - vector characteristics of mid - latitude area would provide forecasters with a lot of useful information for determining the variations of this neutercane.
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