最优化技术在集成预报中的应用
OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUES USED IN SYNTHESIZING FORECASTING
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摘要: 由L(L≥3)个预报方法确定的L维原象X1,X2,…,XN,确定2维象Y1,Y1,…,YN,满足其纵坐标与预报对象历史值离差平方和不大于原方法的约束,使误差E为最小,即得到既能客观综合原L个方法的预报信息,又能保证其拟合率不低于原方法的集成结果。经La-grange乘子法变换,构造新函数Z后,可实现在计算机上用单纯形法直接求解。Abstract: Based on L-dimensional original images X1, X2,…, XN defined with L forecasting methods (L≥3), 2-dimensional images Y1, Y2, …, YN are set in accordance with the restraints that the sum of squares for the deviation of the ordinate from the historic value of the forecast objects should be no greater than the one by the original methods, so that the error E is kept the minimal in the determination of synthesized field that is capable of both objectively integrating forecast information by the original L methods and keeping the fitting rate above the one by the old methods. With transformation by the Lagrangian multiplier and construction of a new function Z, it is now possible to directly have solution on the computer by means of the simplex method.
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Key words:
- Synthesizing forecast /
- Optimization technique /
- Nonlinear mapping /
- Transformation
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