Abstract:
The data initialization problem for nested NWP operational models is discussed in the paper. A newly designed data initialization scheme for a quasi operational tropical prediction model at NMC/CMA is presented and numerically experimented with a Typhoon(named JANIS,in1992) for track prediction (TP). The improvements on TP by the new initialization scheme were proved:the mean 24-hours and 48-hours forecasted deviations from the observed typhoon center position respectively are 196km and 316km by the new scheme,and 225km and 367km by the old scheme. Furthermore,the tendency predictions of typhoon recurvature and acceleration by the new scheme are better than those by the old one.