一种公平技术评分方法在台风业务预报评估中的应用
AN APPLICATION OF THE FAIR SKILL SCORE METHOD IN OPERATIONAL FORECAST OF TYPHOON
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摘要: 将离散变量分级预报的公平技术评分方法引入台风路径业务预报评估中,对1989-1991年的台风业务预报作评估试验,结果表明,该方法定量客观,不但可用于台风分类预报评估,也可对台风移向移速预报进行客观评估。Abstract: An fair skill scores method of discrete variable categorical forecast is introduced to evaluation of operational forecasting of typhoon track. According to the evaluation experiment for operational forecasting of typhoon from 1989-1991,it is shown that the quantitative and objective method may be used to the categorical forecasting of typhoon as well as movement direction and velocity forecasting of typhoon.
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Key words:
- Typhoon track /
- Forecast evaluation /
- Fair skill score
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