全球、中国及云南近百年气温变化的层次结构和突变特征
THE MULTIHIERARCHICAL STRUCTURE AND THE JUMPFEATURES OF CLIMATE CHANGES FOR THE GLOBE, CHINA AND YUNNAN DURING THE LAST ONE HUNDRED YEARS
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摘要: 用文献[1]建立的自适应多分辨数据滤波器进行了全球、中国及云南近百年气温变化的层次结构和突变特征分析。结果表明:(1)全球近百年来的气温变化对于较大时间尺度的演变来说主要特征是变暖,并为3个层次:即1919年以前的偏冷期;1920-1978年偏暖期和1979年以后的更暖期。对应于这种较大时间尺度的层次演变,全球的气温变化表现出十分明显的突变特征,两个最明显增暖的突变点分别发生在1920年和1979年。对应于较小时间尺度的演变来说,全球近百年来的气温变化则表现出较多冷暖交替的层次结构和突变特征。这时的多分辨滤波结果除保留有原较大时间尺度演变的层次结构和突变点外,还增加了新的层次结构和新的突变点。(2)中国和云南近百年来的气温变化是基本一致的,但与全球的气温变化并不完全一致,其中最主要的差异是全球的气温变化在1955-1978年是一个极弱的偏冷期,1979年发生明显增暖的突变,而中国和云南的气温变化在1955-1986年则是一个极强的偏冷期,从1987年开始才出现明显增暖的突变。(3)云南近百年冬、春、夏、秋四季气温变化的层次结构和突变特征是基本一致的,但也存在明显的季节差异,其中最明显的是冬、春季气温变化与中国的年气温变化情况相同,而夏、秋季气温变化则与北半球和全球的年气温变化情况相同。
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关键词:
- 自适应多分辨数据滤波器 /
- 层次结构 /
- 气候突变
Abstract: Using the adaptive multiresolution data filter established by paper,this paper studies the multihierarchical structure and jump features of climate changes for the Globe, China and Yunnan during the last one hundred years. The results show that (1) the main features of the climatic variations for the Globe during the last one hundred years are warming and they can be described as 3 hierarchies corresponding to the larger-scale changes. They are the cold period before 1919, the warm period from 1920 to 1978 and the warmer period after 1979. The larger-timescale's hierarchical changes obviously appear features of climate jump. The years 1920 and 1979 are the jump points of climate change. The climatic variations for the Globe during the last 100 years appear to have more multihierarchical structure and more jump features corresponding to the smaller-scale changes. The filtered data of multiresolution not only conserve hierarchical structure and jump points of the larger scale changes, but also increase the new hierarchical structure and the new jump points. (2)The surface air temperature variations for China and Yunnan province are analogous but are not all analogous to the Globe. The main contrasts are that the Globe is the weaker cold period from 1955 to 1978 and the year 1979 is the jump point of warming,while China and Yunnan province are the stronger cold period from 1955 to 1986 and the year 1987 is the jump point of warming. (3) The hierarchical structure and the jump features of surface air temperature variations for Yunnan province in 4 seasons during the last 100 years are roughly analogous but of difference. The contrasts are that the Winter and the Spring are analogous to China, but the Summer and the Autumn are analogous to the Northern Hemisphere and the Globe.
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