近百年全球平均气温年际变化型态的低频变率特征
LOW FREQUENCY VARIABILITY OF INTERANNUAL CHANGE PATTERNS FOR GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE DURING RECENT 100 YEARS
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摘要: 利用时间上扩展的经验正交函数(TEEOF)分析方法,对近百年全球及南北半球平均气温一年、三年、六年和十年的变化型态及其频率进行诊断,结果表明,TEEOF第一模态占总方差贡献的50% 以上,各种年际振动的第一模态基本上代表了与气候变化有关的年变化型,并能反映出气温的长期趋势变化,特别是十年际的第一模态,冬季气温显示出较强的上升趋势,相应的第一时间主分量趋势与实际温度序列的走势非常一致。全球及南北半球各时域TEEOF除第一模态及一年TEEOF的第二模态外,其它特征向量所表示的年际变化型态各有差异,相应主分量都与一定的年际准周期振动结构的长期变率有关。年变化型态的T2检验表明,南半球及全球的突变时间与年平均气温单要素t检验结果差异不大,而北半球的差异明显,表明T2检验,对具有多变量的型态突变的检测比单要素的t检验更为合理。Abstract: The features of low frequency variability and short-term interannual change patterns are analyzed using TEEOF method. The results shows that all first pattern of TEEOF over global and two hemisphere possess more 50% of the variance contributions to total amount of the variance,which of every first pattern of interannual fluctuation represent basically the seasonal variations of climatic annual change and suggest long trend of temperature,e.g. there are a strong rise tendency of temperature in first mode of decade change within winter and its first principal component is consistent with real temperature time series. The eigenvectors of global or southern and northern hemisphere TEEOF indicate each patterns of interannual change of temperature which are different over time and space domain (except the first mode and second mode of seasonal variation during one year range),and corresponding principal components are correlative with the long range variability of interannual quasi-period fluctuation structure. A test method of climatic catastrophe for annual variation pattern by mean of the T2 statistics is used in this paper and effect of this method is more reasonable than the general t-test method to the climatic abruption for multi-variables.
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