热带气旋登陆华东的客观预报方案
THE FORECASTING SCHEME OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONE AT SOUTHEAST CHINA
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摘要: 热带气旋登陆华东属小概率事件。构造适当划分区间的阶梯函数能较好地反映登陆事件条件概率的非线性分布。应用阶梯函数变换的因子对登陆事件概率的预报性能优于线性相关的标准化因子。预报方案应用阶梯函数变换因子,通过非线性相关比筛选和REEP分析构造热带气旋登陆华东的预报模式。应用初始场资料与数值预报产品分别构造了统计-天气学、统计-气候学和统计-动力学的分类预报模式。应用分类预报模式的预报结果进行综合的预报集成提高了预报技巧。预报检验与试验表明本方案对热带气旋登陆华东具有一定的预报能力。Abstract: In this paper,a forecasting scheme of landfalling tropical cyclone at Southeast China was developed. Predictors were transformed by using step functions that were made up of mean probabilities of tropical cyclone landfalling event in divided intervals. The forecasting model was constructed with nonlinear correlation ratios between transformed predictors and tropical cyclone landfalling event and REEP. A consensus forecast was derived from statistical-climatic prediction,statistic-synoptic prediction and perfect prediction. Forecasting verification with independent samples and forecasting experiments indicated that the forecasting scheme of landfalling tropical cyclone at Southeast China is available.
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Key words:
- tropical cyclone /
- landfall /
- forecast
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