多元均生函数模型及其在短期气候预测中的应用
THE MULTIPLE MEAN GENERATIONAL FUNCTION MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION IN SHORT-RANGE CLIMATIC FORECAST
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摘要: 在原均生函数模型的基础上,对模型进行改进,首次引入预报因子变量,建立一个多元的均生函数模型。它适应于气温、降水、热带气旋个数等多种要素预报。新建的多元均生函数模型包含了原模型的优点,而且比原有均生函数模型具有更强的物理基础。Abstract: The mean generational function model has been advanced base on the original in this paper. Forecasting factors are introduced and a multiple mean generational function model is established. The newly established model is applicable for varied elements forecast just as temperature,precipitation and tropical cyclone. It has stronger physical foundations besides the advantages of the original model.
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[1] 林爱兰,吴尚森.近40年华南汛期旱涝变化及趋势预测[J].热带气象学报,[3] 1996,[4] 12: 160-166. [2] 魏凤英,曹鸿兴.长期预测数学模型及其应用[M].北京:气象出版社,1990.22-48.
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