1997/1998年热带太平洋海温异常的诊断分析与预报检验

李清泉; 赵宗慈

1997/1998年热带太平洋海温异常的诊断分析与预报检验

国家气象中心, 北京, 100081

基金项目: 中国气象局重点科研项目“1998年长江、嫩江流域特大暴雨的成因及预报应用研究”;国家“九·五” 重中之重科技项目“中国短期气候预测系统研究”96-908-02-05专题资助

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2000-04-29
- 修回日期: 2000-07-04

DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION OF PREDICTION OFTHE TROPICAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATUREANOMALIES DURING 1997-1998

National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China

摘要

摘要: 通过与历史上已发生的ENSO事件的比较,对1997～1998年热带太平洋海温异常的基本特征和可能成因进行了诊断分析,发现1997/1998年El Nino事件具有显著的异常性和独特性,不同于以往单纯的东部型或西部型El Nino。对用一个简化海气耦合动力学模式做1997/1998年El Nino事件的预报进行检验,结果表明该模式对这次暖事件超前0～24个月的预报技巧均在0.5以上,模式对暖事件的成熟位相及以后阶段的预报比对暖事件的开始阶段预报得好。
- ENSO /
- 诊断分析 /
- 数值预报 /
- 预报检验
Abstract: By comparing with ENSO events that ever happened in the history,the basic features and probable causes of the anomalous sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean during 1997 and 1998 have been analyzed diagnostically. It is found that the 1997/1998 El Nino had significant abnormalities and peculiarities. It differs from the previous El Nino events falling into the simple "eastern pattern" or "western pattern". Also,the predictions of 1997/1998 El Nino event by using a simplified ocean-atmosphere coupled dynamic model have been tested. The results show that the skills of the 0~24 lead month forecasts for the warm event are all above 0.5. The predictions of the mature phase and the later stages of the warm event are better than those of the beginning phase.
- ENSO /
- diagnostic analysis /
- numerical forecast /
- verification of prediction

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参考文献(6)

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