近50年浙江省旱、涝气候变化及特征
CLIMATIC CHANGE OF FLOOD AND DROUGHT EVENTS WITHTHEIR CHARACTERISTICS IN THE RECENT 50YEARS OVER ZHEJIANG PROVINCE
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摘要: 用1951~1999年资料详细研究了浙江省的年、季的旱、涝气候变化特征。主要结果:浙江省夏季降水量表现出稳定的增加,其他季节(特别是秋季)的降水有不同程度的减少。每年在浙江省出现大范围旱(或涝)的可能性很大(约80%)。1985年以后浙江每年都要发生大范围的季节性的旱涝。浙江省年、季降水量旱涝有年代际变化。旱、涝发生的气候频率己经有了明显的变化,特别是夏季。奇异谱分析与最大熵谱分析的结果表明夏季、秋季与年的降水量有明显的长期趋势变化,它们还有10年左右的周期,而冬季降水的2年周期振荡特别明显。Abstract: The 1951-1999 measurements are employed to investigate in depth the climatic change features of yearly and seasonal disasters,arriving at the main results as follows:a) steady increase occurs in summer rainfall in contrast to reduction,to varying degree,in other seasons,particularly in autumn;b) the possibility is great (roughly 80%) for large-scale floods and/or droughts to be in the province on an annual basis. It is evident that the seasonal disasters hit the study region each year after 1985; c) the annual and seasonal calamities experience inter-decadal variation,and the climatic frequency of their occurrence shows noticeable change,especially in summer. The analyses from singular spectrum and maximum entropy spectrum techniques reveal that precipitation on a seasonal (summer and autumn) and an annual basis displays remarkable secular trend change with some 10-year periods found and,in contrast,about 2-year oscillations are particularly pronounced for the winter precipitation.
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Key words:
- climate change /
- Zhejiang /
- rainfall index /
- statistics of flood and drought events
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