利用卫星云图变分同化初始场对热带气旋路径影响的数值试验

1.
南京气象学院大气科学系, 江苏, 南京, 210044;解放军理工大学气象学院, 江苏, 南京, 211101;解放军理工大学气象学院, 江苏, 南京, 211101
2.
解放军理工大学气象学院, 江苏, 南京, 211101
3.
上海台风研究所, 上海, 200030

基金项目: 总参重点项目[2000]参作气字第61号

A NUMERICAL STUDY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGES VARIATIONAL ASSIMILATION INITIAL FIELD

1.
Department of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044, China;Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China
2.
Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China
3.
Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai 200030, China

摘要: 利用上海台风研究所的东海热带气旋预报模式,讨论用卫星亮温资料变分同化初始温度场及相对湿度场对热带气旋移动路径的影响。结果表明,对400～925hPa模式层的温度场、相对湿度场和温度场的变分同化对热带气旋移动路径预报有较好的实用意义。
- 热带气旋 /
- 卫星资料 /
- 变分同化 /
- 路径 /
- 数值模拟
Abstract: Using the East China Sea Tropical Cyclone (TC) Forecasting Model developed by Shanghai Typhoon Institute, in connection with a variational assimilation of initial temperature and relative humidity fields basing on meteorological satellite brightness temperatures, the TC track is addressed. The result shows that the assimilation of the 400～925 hPa temperature, and temperature-relative humidity initial fields has improved the TC track prediction in some degree which is of much operational importance.
- tropical cyclone /
- meteorological satellite image /
- variational assimilation /
- track /
- numerical simulation

[1]	SASAKI Y K,GOERSS J.Satellite data assimilation using NASA data system test 6 Observations[J].Mon Wea Rev,1982,110:1635－1644.
[2]	CRAM J M,KAPLAN M L.Variational assimilation of VAS data into a mesoscale model;Assimilation method andsensitivity experiments[J].Mon Wea Rev,1985,113:467－484.
[3]	PHILLIPS N,MCMILLAN L,GRUBER A,et al.An evaluation of early operational temperature soundings from TIROS-N[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1979,60:1188－1197.
[4]	SCHLATTER T W.An assessment of operational TIROS-N temperature retrievals over the United States[J].Mon Wea Rev,1981,109:110－119.
[5]	CHARNEY J,HALEM M,JASTROW R.Use of incomplete historical data to infer the oresent state of atmosphere[J].J AtmosSci,1969,26:1160－1163.
[6]	HILLGER D W,T A VONDER Haar.Deriving mesoscale temperatures and moisture fields from satellite radiancemeasurements over the United States[J].J Appl Meteor,1977,16:715－726.
[7]	沈桐立,闵锦忠,吴诚鸥,等.有限区域卫星云图资料变分分析的试验研究[J].高原气象,1995,15:58－67.
[8]	王登炎,俞康庆.用GMS双谱资料估计湿度场及其在数值预报中的应用[J].应用气象学报,1997,8:413－419.
[9]	端义宏,雷小途.东海热带气旋预报业务系统的研制[A].台风、暴雨业务数值预报方法和技术研究[C].北京:气象出版社,1996.295－302.
[10]	IWASIKI T,NAKANO H,SUGI M.The performance of a tropical track prediction model with cumulus parameterization[J].J M S Japan,1987,65:555－570.