综合评估环境场影响的热带气旋路径客观相似预报模式

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基金项目: 浙江省自然科学基金(495001)资助

THE OBJECTIVE ANALOGUE PREDICTION MODEL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK CONSIDERING SYNTHETICAL EVALUATION ENVIRONMENT

摘要: 提出一个综合评估环境场影响的热带气旋路径客观相似预报模式。模式应用热带气旋参数、初始和未来环境场,构造客观的相似判据。通过定义非线性的相似指数综合评估历史热带气旋样本在多元判据下的相似程度,从而找到相似样本。应用相似样本的历史路径进行坐标变换和相似指数的权重综合,得到预报路径。模式检验和预报试验表明该模式具有预报技巧。
- 环境场 /
- 热带气旋 /
- 相似预报
Abstract: An objective analogue prediction model of tropical cyclone track is brought forward that considers the synthetical evaluation environment. By using tropical cyclone parameter,initial and final environmental fields,an objective resemble criterion is built up. Then the resemble samples are obtained. Through defining the non-linear resemble indexes,with which the resemble extent of the historical tropical cyclone samples are evaluated under multi-criterion,and some resemble samples are got. Applying the history tracks of resemble sample,the coordinate transform and rate synthesis are processed and then the prediction track is formed. The model inspection and prediction trail show the model is of foreczst skill.
- environmental field /
- tropical cyclone /
- analogue

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