ENSO对云南地区降水影响的年代际变化
THE INFLUENCE OF ENSO EVENTS UPON YUNNAN PRECIPITATION AND ITS INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS
-
摘要: 通过对云南地区近50年的降水与尼诺3区的海面温度(以下简称SST)的相关性研究发现,同期或是前期的SST均与该地区的降水存在一定的相关关系,如云南地区初夏降水与前期SST呈负相关关系,而秋季降水与前期SST呈正相关关系,即在El Nino(La Nina)年,该地区初夏降水容易偏少(多),而秋季降水容易偏多(少),整个地区雨季有后(前)移的可能性。因此我们认为,ENSO对云南降水的影响主要表现为云南雨季起讫的早晚。同时发现,这种影响存在明显的年代际变化特征,即云南地区初夏和秋季降水与前期SST的相关关系在1970年代中期到1980年代末期这段时期表现得尤为显著,之前或之后这种相关关系都没有通过显著性检验。Abstract: Results of an analysis show that during the recent 50 years there is an evident correlation between the precipitation of Yunnan and the sea surface temperature (SST) over the eastern equatorial Pacific. For example,a strong positive correlation appears between the previous SST and the autumn precipitation of Yunnan,whereas there is a strong negative correlation between SST and the earlier summer precipitation. It shows that in the years of El Nino (La Nina),the earlier summer precipitation of Yunnan is less (more) than normal but the autumn precipitation is more (less) than normal and the rainy season of Yunnan begins later (earlier) than normal. So in our opinion,this is the main influence of ENSO events upon Yunnan precipitation and it also associates with some characteristics of interdecadal variation. For instance,the correlation between the precipitation of Yunnan and SST is remarkable during the period from the middle of 1970's to the end of 1980's,but the correlation is weak out of this period.
-
Key words:
- ENSO /
- precipitation /
- correlation /
- interdecadal variations
-
[1] 刘永强,丁一汇.ENSO事件对我国天气气候的影响[J].应用气象学报,1992,3:473-481. [2] 陈兴芳,赵振国.中国汛期降水预测研究及应用[M].北京:气象出版社,2000 8-9. [3] REYNOLDS R W.A real-time global sea surface temperature analysis[J].J Climate,1988,1:75-86. [4] 琚建华.ENSO对低纬高原天气的影响[A].低纬高原天气气候[M].北京:气象出版社,1997.150-161 [5] 张小玲,琚建华,王三杉.El Nino对云南初夏降水的影响[J].热带气象学报,1999,15:168-176 [6] 段旭,琚建华,肖子牛,等.云南气候异常物理过程及预测信号的研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2000.11.
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 1117
- HTML全文浏览量: 0
- PDF下载量: 1549
- 被引次数: 0