中尺度数值预报模式初边值作用的试验研究
EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF THE ROLE OF INITIAL AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS IN MESOSCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION
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摘要: 通过一次影响华南地区的锋面降水过程实例,进行了静力与非静力中尺度模式、不同驱动模式、不同初边值组合、不同边值更新周期、不同起报时次等27组对比试验。较全面细致地从不同侧面分析讨论了初、边值对中尺度模式的影响规律及特点,得出了一些有学术和应用价值的结论。如中尺度模式预报的总体趋势决定于其驱动模式,初值仅显著影响中尺度模式大约前10小时的预报,以后的预报趋势则主要决定于边值的信息;边值对模式内区的影响主要通过各种时间尺度天气信息(天气波动)的传播和移动来实现;土壤含水量等模式外参量初值可影响较长时效的预报;模式通过边界只能引入大于等于边值更新周期4倍的时间尺度的信息,更快的信息则被过滤掉;等等。其中一些结论对今后发展中尺度数值预报及其资料同化具有参考价值。Abstract: Based on the real case of a frontal precipitation process affecting South China,27 controlled numerical experiments was made,aiming at impacts of hydrostatic and nonhydrostatic effects,different driving model,different initial/boundary conditions,different renew periods of boundary values,as well as different initial dates,on model predictions. And some technically and practically valuable regulations and features about the impact of initial/boundary conditions on mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model were analyzed and discussed in detail. It is considered that the overall tendencies of mesoscale NWP model are governed by its driving model,with the initial conditions showing remarkable impacts on mesoscale models only within about the first 10 hours of predictions,while predictions longer than 10 hours are mainly dominated by lateral boundary conditions,which affect inner area of mesoscale predictions through propagation and movement of weather signals (waves) of different time scales. In addition,some initial values of external model parameters such as soil water content may affect predictions of more longer time,while fast signals may be filtered away and only the information with time scale of equal to or larger than 4 times of the updated period of boundary values may be introduced,through lateral boundaries,with mesoscale models,etc. Some results may be taken as important guidance on mesoscale model and its data assimilation developments of the future.
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Key words:
- numerical weather prediction /
- mesoscale /
- initial condition /
- boundary condition
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