全球变暖对区域极端气温出现概率的影响

基金项目: 河南省科委科技攻关项目"黄淮流域气象灾害监测预测技术方法研究"(9608)资助

THE INFLUENCE OF THE GLOBAL WARMING ON PROBABILITIES OF REGIONAL EXTREME TEMPERATURES

摘要: 在适当的概率分布模式基础上,考察冬夏极端气温出现概率对全球气候变暖的敏感率,以上海、南京、东台、徐州站为试验实例。分析结果表明,无论是冬季逐日最低(极端)或平均最低气温或夏季逐日最高(极端)或平均最高气温的概率分布的敏感率几乎都呈现出气温方差变化的影响大于气温均值变化的影响。
- 概率分布模式 /
- 极端气温 /
- 概率敏感率
Abstract: The sensitivity of extreme temperature probabilities during winter and summer to the global warming are explored based on a favorable probability distribution model,and by using some stations example as follows: Shanghai,Nanjing,Dontai,Xuzhou. The conclusions of this research show that the sensitivities of probability distributions to the daily maximum and minimum temperatures or the average maximum and minimum temperatures have consistently higher affact of variance than mean of temperatures does.
- model of probability distribution /
- extreme temperature /
- sensitivity of probability

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