简化ENSO预测模式的改进试验

基金项目: 国家自然基金项目40105009;“九·五”攻关“我国短期气候预测系统的研究”96-908-02-05加强专题资助

MODIFICATION OF THE SIMPLIFIED COUPLED MODEL FOR ENSO

摘要: 利用NCEP的海洋模式同化资料,对Cane-Zebiak简化海气耦合模式的海洋动力要素进行对比分析。结果表明,该模式的大气部分能够较好地模拟出海温强迫下的大气风场异常,而海洋部分的模拟结果与实况相比存在较多虚假的偏暖偏冷事件以及对El Niño事件的模拟强度偏小等问题。这主要与海洋模式中混合层厚度选取较浅,导致垂直上翻温度平流的贡献削弱有关。试验结果证明,适当加强该项的强度可提高模式的预报能力。
- 海气耦合模式 /
- ENSO预报
Abstract: The simplified ocean-atmosphere model, originated from the Cane-Zebiak model, have been analyzed by using the NCEP EMC CMB initialized data. It is found that the atmospheric component of the model has a certain capability to simulate the atmospheric anomalies, but the oceanic component of the model simulates some unreasonable cold/warm events. The thickness of the mixed-layer ocean is too shallow to simulate the upwelling and advection well. Based on those results, a model modification scheme has been developed. The numerical predictions indicated that the modified model had a better ability to predict the El Nino/La Nina events than the original one.
- air-sea interactions /
- ENSO forecast

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