影响福建热带气旋年季频数的投影寻踪回归模型

高建芸; 宋德众; 林秀芳

影响福建热带气旋年季频数的投影寻踪回归模型

1.
南京信息工程大学, 江苏, 南京, 210044;福建省专业气象台, 福建, 福州, 350001
2.
福建省专业气象台, 福建, 福州, 350001

基金项目: 国家科技部项目2001DIB20116资助

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2002-12-18
- 修回日期: 2003-05-03

FORECASTING MODEL OF ANNUAL AND SEASONAL NUMBERS OF AFFECTING TROPICAL CYCLONE BASED ON PROJECTION PURSUIT REGRESSION

1.
Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Fujian Professional Meteorogical Observatory , Fuzhou 350001, China
2.
Fujian Professional Meteorogical Observatory , Fuzhou 350001, China

摘要

摘要: 投影寻踪方法是一类处理高维问题,特别是高维非正态问题的新兴统计方法。通过普查北半球500 hPa、100 hPa、北太平洋海温以及500 hPa环流特征量与影响福建热带气旋年、季频数的相关,采用逐步回归筛选预测因子。然后,应用投影寻踪回归方法的基本思想和算法,建立福建热带气旋年季频数的PPR预测模型。结果表明,PPR模型的预测效果明显优于逐步回归预测模型,对福建热带气旋年季频数具有较好的预测能力。
- 热带气旋 /
- 投影寻踪 /
- 预测模型
Abstract: The projection pursuit algorithm is a kind of up-to-date statistic algorithms which deals with the height dimensional problem, especially the negate normality problem. The forecasting factors are screened out by stepwise regression through general overhauling correlation coefficient between the 500 hPa、100 hPa geopotential heights of the Northern Hemisphere、 the sea surface temperature(SST) of the North Pacific Ocean and the circumfluent features of 500hPa geopotential heights and annual, seasonal numbers of tropical cyclone affecting Fujian. Then, a forecasting model for annual and seasonal numbers of tropical cyclone affecting Fujian is proposed using the original idea and its implement algorithm of projection pursuit regression (PPR). The results show that the forecasting precision of the PPR model is much better than that of stepwise regression (SR) model.
- tropical cyclone /
- projection pursuit /
- forecasting model

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参考文献(6)

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