冬季北半球500hPa高度场变异的关键区

严华生; 万云霞; 程建刚

冬季北半球500hPa高度场变异的关键区

1.
云南大学大气科学系, 云南, 昆明, 650091
2.
云南大学大气科学系, 云南, 昆明, 650091;云南省气象局, 云南, 昆明, 650034
3.
云南省气象局, 云南, 昆明, 650034

基金项目: 云南省重点基金项目(2003D00142);国家自然科学基金(40065001)

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2003-07-17
- 修回日期: 2003-11-03

ON THE KEY REGIONS OF 500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS OVER NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IN WINTER

1.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
2.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China;Yunnan Meteorology Bureau, Kunming 650034, China
3.
Yunnan Meteorology Bureau, Kunming 650034, China

摘要

摘要: 运用方差分析、相关分析、回归分析对1951～2001年500hPa高度场资料进行分析,结果表明:冬季有三个区域(180°E～150°W,45～60°N;70～100°W,45～75°N;60～100°E,65～80°N)方差最大,是大气环流发生变异的关键区。各个关键区平均高度的变化和不同的大气环流遥相关型的相关关系不同,与同期500hPa高度场之间的线性相关较密切,能代表同期500hPa高度场约88%的变化,且在一定程度上能说明后期3～4月的500hPa大气环流的变化情况,对后期大气环流的演变具有一定的预报意义,但时间间隔越大,可预报性越差。
- 冬季 /
- 北半球 /
- 高度场 /
- 关键区
Abstract: Variance analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis methods are applied to analyze the variation of circulation at 500 hPa. In winter, there are three regions(180 °E～ 150 °W,45～60 °N、70～100 °W,45～75 °N、60～100 °E,65～80 °N) whose variations are strong. Those regions are the key regions in which atmospheric circulation can change. Those regions are correlated to some teleconnections and can present a part of variations of 500 hPa to some degree. The linear contemporary correlation between those regions and the height at 500 hPa is significant. Those regions can account for 88 % of variations of concurrent height at 500 hPa. Those regions can present and forecast some variations to some degree in March and April. The longer the time interval is, the worse the forecast effect.
- winter /
- Northern Hemisphere /
- height field /
- key regions

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参考文献(14)

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