广东省盛夏气温异常的成因初探
CLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF ANOMALOUS SUMMER TEMPERATURE PATTERNS IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE
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摘要: 通过对广东省1961~2003年19个代表站盛夏(7~8月)平均气温的EOF分析, 探讨广东省盛夏气温异常(热夏或凉夏)的时空分布结构特征, 并研究分析其前期和同期500hPa高度距平场和海温距平场的特征, 得到了预测广东省盛夏气温异常的一些结果和判据:第一特征向量对应的标准化时间系数显示异常高温的年份有6年:1962、1983、1990、1993、1998、2003年;异常低温的年份有5年:1973、1975、1976、1994、1997年。异常高温年份盛夏前期的副高已经异常偏强, 而且东亚的大气环流的经向度不大, 极涡不强, 冷空气势力不强、东亚槽不深等特征也有利于副高的进一步加强;到盛夏, 副高异常偏强, 异常低温年份的情形恰恰相反;异常高温年份冬春季的海温呈厄尔尼诺分布, 对预报盛夏副高异常偏强有一定作用;而异常低温年份冬春季的海温呈拉尼娜分布, 可预报盛夏副高偏弱。Abstract: Summer temperature anomalies(July to August) at 19 stations in Guangdong Province from 1961 to 2003 are analyzed in terms of the EOF analysis. The 500 hPa height and sea temperature fields are also analyzed and some useful results for the prediction of summer temperature are obtained:The years with anomalously high temperature are 1962,1983,1990,1993,1998,2003, and those with anomalously low temperature are 1973, 1975,1976,1994,1997I;n the years of anomalously high temperature, Subtropical High over the western Pacific would become stronger and stronger from the prophase of summer to summer, the characteristics of the circumfluence of eastern Asia are suitable for the development of Subtropical High over the western Pacific, and In the years of anomalously low temperature, otherwise is true. The El Nino distribution of sea temperature from March to May can be used to predict whether the Subtropical High over the western Pacific is abnormally strong in summer, and the La Nina distribution of sea temperature from December to May can be used to predict whether the Subtropical High over the western Pacific is abnormally weak in summer.
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Key words:
- anomaly of summer temperature /
- EOF analysis /
- 500 hPa circulation field /
- SST field
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