BDA方案在台风路径预报中的应用
THE APPLICATION OF THE BOGUS DATA ASSIMILATION IN THE NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF THE TYPHOON TRACK
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摘要: 利用PSU/NCAR中尺度非静力有限区域MM5及其伴随模式,以T106分析资料为背景场,设计两种台风Bogus方案对台风的初始场进行优化,并进行了数值模拟试验。对9608号台风个例的数值模拟试验研究表明,经过优化的台风初始场较好地改进了由于海洋上资料缺乏所造成的台风中心位置不准、台风环流偏弱和台风内部结构不完整等问题,提高了台风路径预报的准确率。通过试验对比发现,BDA方案优化的初始场更合理,其台风路径预报效果优于GFDL方案。Abstract: The MM5,which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model,and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper.Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes,and conduct some numerical simulating experiments.The results of No.9608 typhoon(Gloria) show that the optimal initial field have some dramatic improvements,such as inaccurate position of typhoon center,weaker typhoon circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon,which are caused by shortage of data over the sea.Some improvements have been made in the track forecast.Through several comparing experiments,the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forecast is better.
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