初始强迫风场对Zebiak-Cane海气耦合模式预报能力的影响研究

岳彩军; 陆维松; 李清泉

初始强迫风场对Zebiak-Cane海气耦合模式预报能力的影响研究

1.
上海台风研究所, 上海, 200030
2.
南京信息工程大学大气科学系, 江苏, 南京, 210044
3.
国家气侯中心, 北京, 100081

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(40275016);上海市气象局科研开发项目(0301)联合资助

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2004-05-24
- 修回日期: 2004-12-18

THE EFFECT OF INITIALIZATION IMPACT WIND ON ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL PREDICTABILITY

1.
Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai 200030, China
2.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China
3.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China

摘要

摘要: 结合观测的海表温度距平(SSTA)对925 hPa NCEP/NCAR再分析风应力距平(以下简称NCEP风应力距平)资料与FSU风应力距平资料进行了比较分析。对比分析了分别以NCEP、FSU风应力距平作为初始强迫风场时的Zebiak-Cane海气耦合模式(简称ZC耦合模式)的预报能力。结果表明:1980、1990年代NCEP风应力距平较FSU风应力距平与观测SSTA匹配更为合理。NCEP风应力距平不仅较FSU风应力距平对ZC海洋模式初始化效果好,尤其在1990年代更为显著,而且在1980、1990年代以N
- Zebiak-Cane海气耦合模式 /
- 初始强迫风场 /
- 预报能力 /
- 影响
Abstract: With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA),the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly(NCEPWSA) and FSU wind stress anomaly(FSUWSA) is analyzed,and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model(ZC coupled model) with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared.The results are as follows.The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s;The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA,especially in 1990s.Meanwhile,the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA.Particularly,it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 El Ni?o 6 to 8 months ahead;further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o event,the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model,with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing,match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA,whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model,which,in turn,is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.
- Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model /
- initialization impact wind /
- prediction ability /
- effect

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参考文献(17)

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