台风Maggie路径异常的数值研究

张中锋; 刘启汉; 拓瑞芳

台风Maggie路径异常的数值研究

1.
民航北京气象中心, 北京, 100621;香港科技大学海岸与大气研究中心, 香港
2.
香港科技大学海岸与大气研究中心, 香港
3.
民航北京气象中心, 北京, 100621

计量
- 文章访问数: 1638
- HTML全文浏览量: 0
- PDF下载量: 1066
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2004-09-06
- 修回日期: 2005-01-08

FACTORS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF TYPHOON MAGGIE

1.
Beijing Meteorological Center of CAAC, Beijing 100621, China;Center for Coastal and Atmospheric Research, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong
2.
Center for Coastal and Atmospheric Research, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong
3.
Beijing Meteorological Center of CAAC, Beijing 100621, China

摘要

摘要: 台风Maggie(1999年)是近年来比较特殊的一个台风,所有台风预报中心均未能准确预报其登陆前的异常路径。通过两个数值试验揭示了台风Maggie路径异常的原因。即Maggie路径异常的主要原因是它与邻近的一个热带气旋相互作用的结果。
- 台风 /
- 路径异常 /
- 数值试验
Abstract: Typhoon Maggie(1999) interacted with another tropical depression system and moved along a west-southwest track that was somewhat abnormal during its pre-landing stage.Two numerical experiments are carried out in this paper to study the effect of the interaction on the track of typhoon Maggie using the mesoscale numerical weather prediction model system with a tropical cyclone bogusing scheme developed by Center for Coastal and Atmospheric Research,The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.Results show that the cyclone system interacting with Maggie is the main factor in the appearance of the abnormal track of Maggie.
- typhoon /
- track /
- bogus method

HTML全文

参考文献(16)

[1]	CHAN J C-L,WILLIAMS R T.Analytical and numerical studies of the beta-effect in tropical cyclone motion.Part I.Zero mean flow[J].J Atmos Sci,1987,44(9):1257-1264.
[2]	DONG K,NEUMANN.The relationship between tropical cyclone motion and environment geostrophic flow[J].Monthly Weather Review,1986,114(1):115-122.
[3]	DONG K,NEUMANN.On the relative motion of binary tropical cyclones[J].Monthly Weather Review,1983,111(5):945-953.
[4]	BENDER M A,TULERA R E,KURIHARA Y.A numerical study of the effect of island terrain on tropical cyclones[J].Monthly Weather Review,1987,115(1):130-155.
[5]	炎利军,田永祥,黄先香.双台风相互作用的数值研究[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2):167-175.
[6]	LAU K-H,GILL D,LOW-NAM S,et al.Design considerations for a real-time limited-area numerical weather prediction system using MM5[C].Proceedings for the sixth PSU/NCAR mesoscale model users workshop,1996.143-146.
[7]	GILL D,LOW-NAM S,WANG W,et al.The development of a globally-relocatable MM5 system on a workstation[C].Proceedings for the fifthPSU/NCAR mesoscale model users workshop,1995:15-18.
[8]	GRELL GA,DUDHIA J,STAUFFER D R.A description of the fifth generation Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5) [R].NCAR Tech NoteNCAR/TN-398+STR,1994:138.
[9]	REISNER J,RASMUSSEN R M,BRUINTJE R T.Explicit forecasting of suppercooled liquid water in winter storms using the MM5 mesoscale mode[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,1998,124(548):1071-1107.
[10]	HONG S-Y,PAN H-L.Nonlocal boundary layer vertical diffusion in a Medium-Range Forecast model[J].Monthly Weather Review,1996,124(10):2322-2339.
[11]	REYNOLDS R W,SMITH T M.Improved global sea surface temperature analyses[J].J Climate,1994,7(6):929-948.
[12]	BENDER M A,ROSS R J,KURIHARA Y,et al.Improvements in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts using a bogus vortex[C].Preprints,19th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.Miami,Amer Meteor Soc,1991:324-325.
[13]	KURIHARA Y,BENDER M A,TULEYA R E,et al.Prediction Experiments of Hurricane Gloria (1985) using a multiply nested movable mesh model[J].Monthly Weather Review,1990,118(10):2185-2198.
[14]	KURIHARA,Y.,BENDER MA,and RJ Ross.An Initialization Scheme of Hurricane Models by Vortex Specification[J].Monthly Weather Review,1993,121(7):2030-2045.
[15]	周霞琼,端义宏,朱永禔.热带气旋路径集合预报方法研究I [J].热带气象学报,2003,19(1):1-8.
[16]	LAM Hok-Yin,LAU Kai-Hon,WEI Huang.Forecast and verification of typhoons in the South China Sea:Leo (9902) and Maggie (9903) [C].Proceedings for the Third Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes,1999:33-36.