全球热带气旋活动与全球气候变化相关特征
ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF CORRELATION BETWEEN GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITIES AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
-
摘要: 阐述全球气候变化对全球热带气旋活动的影响在国际上取得的进展。从3方面进行综合分析:(1)气候变化特征对全球热带气旋的影响;(2)热带气旋活动的年际变化和年代际振荡以及影响因子;(3)热带气旋活动与全球气候变化方面的数值模拟进展。总结国际上在这一领域取得的研究进展,全球气候变化主要以全球大气环流、海气相互作用、全球海面温度以及温盐环流(Thermohaline Circulation)这4个方面相互影响及其共同作用,可对全球热带气旋活动的发生频率、强度、路径趋势和登陆地区产生影响。Abstract: In this paper,impacts of global climate change on tropical cyclone activities are summarized,in the following aspects: ⑴ global climate change impact on tropical cyclone activities;⑵ interannual and interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activities and dominating factors;⑶ progresses on numerical simulations on tropical cyclone activities and global climate change.The summary of these studies shows that global climate change which are characterized by comprehensive and composite impacts of atmospheric general circulation,air-sea interaction,global sea surface temperature,and thermohalinic circulation on frequency,intensities,genesis,track trend and landfall area of tropical cyclones.
-
[1] ICPP.Climate change 2001(The Scientific Basis)[C]//Contribution of working group Ⅰ:to the third assessment report of theintergovernmental panel on climate change.2001:1-53. [2] 中国气象局.中国气象局图书馆文献资料通讯[Z]//大气科学信息追踪.2004,6(8):2-3. [3] BARNETT Tim P,PIECE David W,ACHUTARAO Krishna M,et al.Penetration of Human-Induced Warming into the World'sOcean[J].Science,2005,309:284-287. [4] LEVITUS S,ANTONOV J,BOYER T.Warming of the world ocean,1955-2003[J].Geophys Res Lett,2005,32,L02604,doi:10.1029/2004GL021592. [5] HEGERL Gabriele C,BINDOFF Nathaniel L.Warming the World's oceans[J].Sceince,2005,309:254-255. [6] WESTER P J,HOLLAND G J,CURRY J A,et al.Change in Tropical Cyclone Number,During,and Intensity in a WarmingEnvironment[J].Science,2005,309:1844-1846. [7] GRAY William M.Summary of The Eighth IMO Lecture to be presented at twelfth congress(May/June 1995)[J].World Meteorological OrganizationBulletin,1995,44(2):115-118. [8] 李崇银,李桂龙.北大西洋涛动和北太平洋涛动的演变与20世纪60年代的气候突变[J].科学通报,1999,44(16):1765-1769. [9] 龚道溢,周天军,王绍武.北大西洋涛动变率研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2001,6(3):413-420. [10] HARTMAN D L,WALLACE J M,LIMPASUVAN V,et al.Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change?[J].Proc Nat Acad Sci,2000,97(4):1343-1346. [11] OSBORN T J,BRIFFA K R,TETT S P D,et al.Evaluation of the North Atlantic Oscillation as simulated by a coupled climate model[J].ClimateDynamics,1999,15(9):685-702. [12] IRION R.How to steer a hurricane[J].Science,2000,287:1580-1583. [13] CANYAN D R.Latent and sensible heat flux anomalies over the northern oceans:the connection to monthly atmosphericcirculation[J].J Climate,1992,5(4):354-369. [14] KOCHER Bethany,ELSNER J B.Global tropical cyclone activity:a link to the north atlantic oscillation[C].24th Conference on Hurricanes and TropicalMeteorology.2000:23-24. [15] 何敏,宋文玲,陈兴芳.厄尔尼诺和反厄尔尼诺事件与西北太平洋台风活动[J].热带气象学报,1999,15(1):17-25. [16] Horsfall Fiona.Climatological analysis of tropical cyclogenesis in the north atlantic and eastern north Pacific basins[C].24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology,2000:53-54. [17] LANDER Mark A.The tropical cyclone distribution in the western North Pacific during the El Nino-La Nina swing of 1997-1999:Extraordinaryinterannual changes[C].Florida:American Meteorological Society,2000:179-180. [18] GRAY William M.On the causes of multi-decadal climate change and prospects for increased Atlantic basin hurricane activity in the coming decades[C].Boston:American Meteorological Society,1999:378-381. [19] 朱乾根,陈敏.西北太平洋登陆热带气旋的统计特征[C]//第十二届全国热带气旋科学讨论会论文集.北京:中国气象科学研究院,2002:15-18. [20] 周俊华,史培军,陈学文.1949~1999年西北太平洋热带气旋活动时空分异研究[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):44-49. [21] 孙秀荣,端义宏.对东亚夏季风与西北太平洋热带气旋频数关系的初步分析[J].大气科学,27(1):67-74. [22] 吴迪生,白毅平,张红梅,等.赤道西太平洋暖池次表层水温变化对热带气旋的影响[J].热带气象学报,2003,19(3):253-259. [23] 张庆云,彭京备.夏季东亚环流有年际和年代际变化对登陆中国台风的影响[J].大气科学,27(1):97-105. [24] 林惠娟,张耀存.影响我国热带气旋活动的气候特征及其太平洋海温的关系[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2):218-224. [25] LANDSEA C W,NICHOLLS N,et al.Downward trends in the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during the past five decades[J].Geophys ResLett,1996,23:1697-1700. [26] ELSNER J B,JAGGER Thomas,NIU Xufeng.Changes in the rates of north Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th century[C].Florida:American Meteorological Society,2000:474-475. [27] CHU Pao-Shin,CLARK James,LIN Benny.Interannual and decadal variability of tropical cyclone activity over the central north Pacific[C].Florida:American Meteorological Society,2000:21-22. [28] KIMBERLAIN Todd B.Long-term trends in North Pacific tropical cyclone activity[C].Florida:American Meteorological Society,2000:472-473. [29] KNUTSON T R,TULEYA R E,SHEN W,et al.Impact of CO2-induced warming on hurricane intensities as simulated in a hurricane model with oceancoupling[C].Florida:American Meteorological Society,2000:478-479. [30] KNUTSON T R.Special Focus topic 4:Global Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones.Fifth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones[C].Cairns:WMO Tropical Meteorology Research Programme(TMRP)Commission for Atmospheric Sciences(CAS),2002,3-12,December. [31] WALSH Kevin J E,NGUYEN K C.Multiply-nested simulations of the poleward extent of tropical cyclones[C].Florida:American MeteorologicalSociety,2000:476-477. [32] WALSH K J E,KATZFEY J J.The impact of climate change on the poleward movement of tropical cyclone-like vortices in a regional climatemodel[J].J Climate,2000,13(6):1116-1132. [33] KNUTSON T R,TULEYA R E.Increased hurricane intensities with CO2-induced warming as simulated using the GFDL hurricane prediction system[J].Clim Dyn,1999,15(7):503-519.
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 1194
- HTML全文浏览量: 0
- PDF下载量: 2020
- 被引次数: 0