层次分析法在热带气旋灾害影响评估模式中的应用
APPLICATION OF ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS IN THE ASSESSMENT MODEL ON TROPICAL CYCLONE DISASTER'S INFLUENCE
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摘要: 将层次分析法和专家打分法应用于广东省热带气旋灾害影响评估模式中,利用1949～2003年登陆和严重影响广东省的热带气旋的特征参数、气象资料、直接经济损失和造成的灾情损失等资料,对参与评估的指标进行分层,分为中心最低气压、地理综合参数、风综合参数、雨综合参数4个亚评估指标和17个单项评估分指标,用专家打分法进行相对重要性的判别,最后建立“热带气旋综合影响指数”。并用“热带气旋综合影响指数”对热带气旋灾害的影响程度进行分级评判,定量地估算出热带气旋的可能直接经济损失,为政府部门提供参考,并可以与实际灾情调查资料相联系,评估防灾减灾的实际成效。Abstract: The Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP) and the Experts' Scoring are applied in the assessment model on tropical cyclone(TC) disaster's influence.The characteristic parameters of TCs landing or severely influencing Guangdong from 1949 to 2003,corresponding meteorological data,direct economic losses and the situation data of disasters,etc,are taken in this model.The indices which take part in the assessment model are divided into 3 hierarchies.The upmost hierarchy is the synthetical TC influence index,and it could be calculated by 4 factors on the second hierarchy:the lowest center pressure,synthetical geographic parameters,synthetical wind parameters and synthetical rain parameters.The basic hierarchy consists of 17 single item indices.The relative importance of every item or factor is decided by the Experts' Scoring.Then the synthetical TC influence index could be acquired through the AHP.The influence degree of the TC disaster could be judged and the quantitive direct loss could be estimated.This result could be given to the government as a reference,and could be taken to assess the factual effect on defending and decreasing disaster when being combined with the factual investigation data of the loss.
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