近50年广东省雷暴、闪电时空变化特征的研究
TEMPORAL/SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL VARIATION OF THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHTNING OVER THE PAST 50 YEARS IN GUANGDONG
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摘要: 用1957-2004年广东省24站和1951-2004年曲江、广州、汕头、湛江4站的年、月雷暴、闪电的观测资料,研究了广东省年、月的雷暴日、闪电日的时、空分布特征。对年雷暴日、闪电日的经验正交分解表明,在研究的时间段内,广东省年的雷暴日、闪电日都有明显减少的趋势。广东省平均每10年雷暴日减少4.8天、闪电日减少9.5天。雷暴日和闪电日的趋势变化有明显的区域特征,雷暴日减少最明显的是在广东雷州半岛的湛江、徐闻;广东东南部的雷暴日、闪电日则减少不多。闪电的负趋势比雷暴的负趋势更明显。研究表明,雷暴日、闪电日的长期趋势有明显的季节变化。5-9月是雷暴日、闪电日减少最明显的月份,冬季(12、1、2月)的雷暴日、闪电日略有增加。1983年以后广东冬季的雷暴、闪电比1980年以前更加频繁。广东雷暴、闪电的减少是气候变化的一个反映,它们与广东省雨日的气候变化比较一致。Abstract: With monthly and annual dataset of thunderstorm and lightning measured at 24 stations from 1957 to 2004 and at 4 stations from 1951 to 2004 in Guangdong, the temporal and spatial distribution of thunderstorm and lightning in the province is studied. It is shown in the empirical orthogonal decomposition of the number of thunderstorm and lightning days there is a clear declining tendency in the number of both for the period of interest. For every 10 years, the thunderstorm has decreased by 4.8 days and lightning by 9.5 days on average. The trends of thunderstorm and lightning are regional, with the largest drop in Zhanjiang and Xuwen in the Leizhou Peninsula for thunderstorm while the least fall in the southeastern part of the province for both thunderstorm and lightning. The negative trend for lightning is more obvious than that for thunderstorm. As shown in our study, long-term tendency of thunderstorm and lightning days have significant seasonal variation. May, June, July, August and September are the months when thunderstorm and lightning drop the most while they increase a little in the winter months of December, January and February, instead of decreasing. After 1983, winter thunderstorm and lightning were more frequent than the time before it. The decrease of thunderstorm reflects the climate change and is consistent with the climatological variation of rain days in the province.
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