1948～2004年全球越赤道气流气候变化

施能; 封国林; 顾骏强; 谷德军

1948～2004年全球越赤道气流气候变化

1.
南京信息工程大学, 气象灾害和环境变化重点实验室, 江苏, 南京, 210044;中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所, 广东, 广州, 510080
2.
国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室, 北京, 100081
3.
浙江省气象科学研究所, 浙江, 杭州, 310017
4.
中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所, 广东, 广州, 510080

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(40275018,90411008);热带海洋气象科学研究基金;中国气象局热带季风重点开放实验室共同资助

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2006-03-17
- 修回日期: 2006-06-18

THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VARIATION OF GLOBAL CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW FOR THE PERIOD OF 1948～2004

1.
Key Laboratory of Meteorology Disaster and Environment Variation, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou 510080, China
2.
Key Laboratory of National Meteorological Bureau Climate Research Center, Beijing 100081, China
3.
Zhejiang Meteorological Science Research Institute, Hangzhou 310017, China
4.
Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou 510080, China

摘要

摘要: 利用1948年1月～2004年12月逐月NCEP/NCAR的全球1000hPa、850hPa、700hPa、600hPa、500hPa、400hPa、300hPa、200hPa、150hPa、100hPa的10层经向格点风,计算了全球越赤道气流和年变化,分析了全球850hPa越赤道气流通道的时、空变化特征。指出在研究的时间段内,全球850hPa越赤道气流有明显的长期趋势变化和年代际变化。近57年,6～8月的45～50°E、5～9月的105～115°E、5～9月和5～11月的130～140°E、2～4月的20～25°E的越赤道气流有明显的加强,6～8月的50～35°W的越赤道气流减弱。夏季索马里的越赤道气流,平均每10年增强0.25m/s,而130～140°E,5～9月的越赤道气流,平均每10年增强0.32m/s。奇异谱分析表明,850hPa越赤道气流的年代际变化和趋势变化的方差贡献达到35%～45%。年际变化的方差贡献不超过30%,还指出夏季太平洋的越赤道气流的强度变化与南方涛动有明显关系,弱南方涛动时,有强的越赤道气流。而索马里急流强度与北大西洋涛动有弱的正相关。
- 越赤道气流 /
- 气候变化 /
- 趋势 /
- 奇异谱分析 /
- 南方涛动
Abstract: By using monthly NCEP/NCAR meridional gridpoint wind data at the levels of 1000,850,700,600,500,400,300,200,150 and 100hPa from 1948 to 2004,the intensity of global cross-equatorial flow is calculated.The spatial and temporal variation of global cross-equatorial flows at the 850hPa level are shown and discussed.The results show that the strength of the 850hPa global cross-equatorial flows represent obviously long-term variation and interdecadal change during the period.Evidence suggests that the cross-equatorial flow of the passages at 45～50°E in June to August,105～115°E in May to September,130～140°E in May to September and May to November and 20～25°E in February to April intensified and that the cross-equatorial flow of the passages at 50～35°W in June to August weaken in the past 57 years,with an increase of 0.25m/s/10a for summer Somali cross-equatorial flow and increase of 0.32 m/s/10a for cross-equatorial flow at 130～140°E in May to September.The results of Singular Spectrums Analysis(SSA) for the time series of cross-equatorial flow indicate that for the cross-equatorial flow at 850 hPa,the interdecadal and long-term trend changes have 35%～45%,and the interannual variation has no more than 30%,in variance contribution.The results also reveal that the interannual variation of intensity of the cross-equatorial flow in summer in the Pacific has significantly correlated with Southern Oscillation.With weak Southern Oscillation,strong Cross-equatorial flow in Pacific will happen.But summer Somali Jet only has little positive correlation with NAO.
- Cross-equatorial flow /
- climatic change /
- trend change /
- Singular Spectrums analysis /
- Southern Oscillation

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