区域旱涝气候混沌动力学可预报性研究

RESEARCH INTO PREDICTABILITY OF CLIMATOLOGICAL SYSTEM WITH NONLINEAR DYNAMICS

摘要: 根据西安地区旱涝气候等级近1624a(380～2003年)资料序列,运用非线性系统混沌动力学理论,通过计算气候吸引子的关联维数、Kolmogorov熵和Lyapunov指数,对西安区域旱涝气候的混沌特性和可预报性进行研究。结果表明:西安区域旱涝气候系统是一个具有有限个自由度的复杂的混沌系统。其吸引子关联维数约为3.1,确定性的平均可预报时间尺度约为14.8a,最大可预报时间尺度约为20.7a。
- 旱涝气候 /
- 混沌 /
- 可预报性
Abstract: Based on the theory of chaotic dynamics for nonlinear systems,and according to the yearly drought and flood level data within 1624a(from 380～2003) in Xi'an area,a study on the chaotic characteristics and the predictability of the climatological system were investigated by calculating the associated dimension,Kolmogorov entropy and Lyapunov index of climatological attractor.The results showed that the climatological system of drought and flood in Xi'an was a complex chaotic one with limited degrees of freedom.The correlation dimension for its average attractor was 3.1,the deterministic average predictable time scale was about 14.8a,and the maximum predictable time scale was about 20.7a.
- climatological system /
- chaotic characteristic /
- predictability

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