雷达资料对0414号台风“云娜”数值预报的改进

余贞寿; 周功铤; 赵放; 冀春晓

雷达资料对0414号台风“云娜”数值预报的改进

1.
温州市气象局, 浙江, 温州, 325027
2.
浙江省气象科学研究所, 浙江, 杭州, 310017

基金项目: 温州市科技局重点资助项目(S2003A011)

计量
- 文章访问数: 1051
- HTML全文浏览量: 0
- PDF下载量: 964
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2006-07-16
- 修回日期: 2007-07-18

IMPROVEMENT OF NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TYPHOON RANANIM(0414) BY USING DOPPLER RADAR DATA

1.
Wenzhou Meteorological Bureau, Wenzhou 325027, China
2.
Meteorological Science Research Institute of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310017, China

摘要

摘要: 利用美国CAPS的非静力高分辨率区域预报模式ARPS(先进区域预报系统)对0414号台风"云娜"进行数值模拟,模拟结果表明ARPS较好地模拟台风"云娜"的移动路径及台风大暴雨。并着重讨论新一代天气雷达资料对台风"云娜"数值模拟的影响,通过对雷达资料同化进模式与没有雷达资料同化进模式对比模拟的试验结果分析表明:雷达资料进模式,对中高层的风场调整,改进对台风细微结构特征描述,加大近台风中心南侧的西风分量和近台风中心西侧的北风分量,从而改进云娜台风登陆后西行移动路径预报;对扰动温度、雨水混合率、云水混合率及水汽混合率场等调整,改善模式初始场台风中高层成雨条件,对台风降水预报,尤其暴雨的落区、降水分布及其随时间变化的预报有较大改进。
- 雷达资料 /
- ARPS /
- 数值模拟 /
- 台风 /
- 暴雨
Abstract: The typhoon RANANIM(0414) was simulated by using the non-hydrostatic Advanced Regional Prediction System(ARPS) of CAPS.The typhoon RANANIM prediction has generally been improved by ARPS using the new generation CINRAD Doppler radar data.The numerical experiments with or without using radar data have shown that the radar radial velocity data assimilated to model initial fields by ADAS could change the wind field at mid-high levels of the troposphere;fine characters of TC were drawn into the initial wind,the x-component wind speed of southern of TC was increased;the y-component wind speed of western TC was also increased.They lead to improved forecasting of TC tracks after landfall.The field of water vapor mixing ratio,temperature,cloud water mixing ratio and rain water mixing ratio also were improved by using radar reflectivity data.The model's initial reaction to the introduction of hydrometeors will be increased.Previous studies have shown that horizontal model resolution has a significant impact on intensity forecasts,It could greatly improve the forecasting of TC rainfall,specially,heavy rainstorm of TC,as well as its distribution and variation with time.
- radar data /
- ARPS /
- numerical simulation /
- typhoon /
- heavy rain

HTML全文

参考文献(15)

[1]	曾庆存.数值天气预报的数学物理基础[M].北京,科学出版社,1979:1-543.
[2]	王学忠,沙文钰,端义宏.利用卫星云图变分同化初始场对热带气旋路径影响的数值试验[J]..热带气象学报,2003,19(1):107-112.
[3]	庄照荣,薛纪善.云迹风资料的三维变分同化及对台风预报的影响试验[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(3):225-236.
[4]	邱崇践,余金香.多普勒雷达资料对中尺度系统短期预报的改进[J].气象学报,2000,58(2):244-249.
[5]	江敦春,党人庆,陈联寿.卫星资料在台风暴雨数值模拟中的应用[J].热带气象学报,1994,10(4):318-324.
[6]	李江南,龚志鹏,王安宇,等.南海台风Vongfeng(2002)的数值模拟试验[J].中山大学学报,2004,43(3):85-89.
[7]	林静芝,黎守德.高分辨率数值模式应用热带气旋强风或烈风的预报[R] //第十六届粤港澳气象科技研讨会报告.广州.2002.
[8]	LAM C C,YEUNG H Y.Impact of Radar Data on Model Forecast of Heavy Rain Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclone[R] //Proceedings of International Workshop on NWP Models for Heavy Precipitation in Asia and Pacific Areas,Tokyo,Japan,4-6 February 2003.
[9]	齐万林,薛纪善,陈子通,等.雷达TREC风的三维变分同化应用与试验[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(5):449-457.
[10]	XUE M,DROEGEMEIER K K,WONG V,et al.The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) User's Guide[R] //Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms,University of Oklahoma,1995.
[11]	BREWSTER K.Implementation of a Bratseth analysis scheme include Doppler radar[R] //15th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting,AMS,Boston,1996.
[12]	XUE M,WANG D,GAO J,et al.The Advanced Regional rediction System (ARPS),storm-scale numerical weather prediction and data assimilation[J].Met Atmos Phys,2003,76(1):143-165.
[13]	陈联寿.热带气旋结构和结构变化研究的进展[R] //台风科学、业务试验和天气动力学理论的研究:第二分册.北京:气象出版社,1996:296-303.
[14]	陈联寿,罗哲贤.不同尺度涡旋相互作用对台风的结构和移动的影响[R] //台风科学、业务试验和天气动力学理论的研究:第二分册.北京:气象出版社,1996:380-383.
[15]	余贞寿,廖胜石,黄克慧,等.0414号台风"云娜"的数值模拟研究[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):903-913.