江淮梅雨特征及其与北太平洋海温的SVD分析

毛文书; 王谦谦; 彭骏; 李永华

江淮梅雨特征及其与北太平洋海温的SVD分析

1.
南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 江苏, 南京, 210044;成都信息工程学院高原大气与环境研究中心, 四川, 成都, 610225
2.
南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 江苏, 南京, 210044
3.
中国气象局成都高原气象研究所, 四川, 成都, 610072
4.
重庆市气象科学研究所, 重庆, 401147

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金面上项目(40675042);“973”国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2004CB418300);国家自然科学基金重点课题(40233037)共同资助

计量
- 文章访问数: 915
- HTML全文浏览量: 0
- PDF下载量: 1506
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2006-12-06
- 修回日期: 2007-04-28

CHARACTERISTICS OF MEIYU PRECIPITATION AND SVD ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CHANGJIANG-HUAIHE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN

1.
Institute of Atmospheric Science, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China;Center of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China
2.
Institute of Atmospheric Science, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China
3.
Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610072, China
4.
Chongqing Institute of Meteorology Science, Chongqing 401147, China

摘要

摘要: 利用江淮地区1954～2001年48年梅雨量资料,采用谐波分析、EOF、合成分析和SVD分解等方法讨论了江淮梅雨的时空变化特征以及与北太平洋海温的关系。结果表明:江淮梅雨量时空分布不均,存在显著的年际和年代际变化特征。影响江淮梅雨的海温关键区是北太平洋西风飘流区,关键影响时段是当年的1～3月;当年1～3月北太平洋西风飘流区海温异常偏高,同年江淮大部地区梅雨量异常偏多,反之亦然。SVD分解结果与合成分析的结果相吻合,通过0.05的Monte-Carlo显著性检验。
- 梅雨 /
- 谐波分析 /
- EOF /
- SVD /
- Monte-Carlo检验 /
- 北太平洋海温
Abstract: Based on the precipitation of Meiyu at 37 stations in the Changjiang-Huaihe river valley from 1954 to 2001,the temporal-spatial characteristics of Meiyu precipitation and the relationship of the sea surface temperature in the northern Pacific Ocean are investigated in terms of harmonic analysis,empirical orthogonal function (EOF),composite analysis,singular value decomposition (SVD) and others. Results show that the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of Meiyu precipitation are not homogeneous in the Changjiang-Huaihe region. There are prominent inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities of Meiyu precipitation. The key region between the precipitation anomalies of Meiyu precipitation and the monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) lies in the west wind drift of North Pacific Ocean,which influences the precipitation anomaly of Meiyu precipitation and the key period of time is from January to March in the same year. Meiyu precipitation is increasing (decreasing) in the corresponding period when SST of north Pacific Ocean in the west wind drift from January to March is warmer (colder) than average. Results of SVD are consistent with those of composite analysis which passed the significance test of Monte-Carlo at 0.05.
- Meiyu /
- harmonic analysis /
- EOF /
- SVD /
- Monte-Carlo tes /
- Sea Surface Temperature(SST) of North Pacific Ocean

HTML全文

参考文献(22)

[1]	朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2000:350.
[2]	周曾奎.江淮梅雨[M].北京:气象出版社,1996:3.
[3]	叶笃正,黄荣辉.长江黄河流域旱涝规律和成因研究[M].济南:山东科学技术出版社,1996:387.
[4]	NAMIAS J.Large-scale air-sea interaction over the North pacific from summer(1962) through the subsequent winter[J].J Geophysical Research,1963,68(22):6 171-6 186.
[5]	BJERKNES J A.Possible response of the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies of ocean temperature[J].Tellus,1996,18(4):820-829.
[6]	World Climate Research Program.A study of climate variability and predictability[R].WCRP-CLIVAR WMO/TD,1995:690.
[7]	吕炯.海水温度与水旱问题[J].气象学报,1950,21(1):1-16.
[8]	吕炯,张丕远.北太平洋温度场变率与长江中下游降水异常[J].中国科学,1964,13(2):113-142.
[9]	中国科学院大气物理研究所长期天气预报组.海气相互作用与旱涝长期预报[C] //中国科学院大气物理研究所集刊(第6号).北京:科学出版社,1978:1-12.
[10]	王谦谦,钱永甫.1991年太平洋海温异常对降水影响的数值试验[J].南京气象学院学报,1995,18(2):200-205.
[11]	王谦谦,钱永甫.1991年夏季江淮洪涝成因的数值试验--西太平洋海温异常的影响[J].气象学报,1995,53(6):595-603.
[12]	余贞寿,孙照渤,曾刚.太平洋SSTA对中国东部夏季降水的影响I--观测分析[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(2):467-477.
[13]	吴胜安,江志红,刘志雄,等.中国夏季降水与太平洋SSTA年代际变化关系的初步研究[J].热带气象学报,2005,21(2):153-162.
[14]	黄嘉佑.我国夏季气温、降水量场的时空分析特征[J].大气科学,1991,15(3):124-132.
[15]	吴洪宝,吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2005:226-245.
[16]	WALLACE J M,SMITH C,BRETHERTON C S.Singular value decomposition of winter time sea surface temperature and 500 hPa height anomalies[J].J Climate,1992,5(6):561-576.
[17]	BRETHERTON C S,SMITH C,WALLACE J M.An inter-comparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data[J].J Climate,1992,5(6):541-560.
[18]	丁裕国,江志红.SVD方法在气象场诊断分析中的普适性[J].气象学报,1996,54(3):365-375.
[19]	施能,魏凤英,封国林,等.气象场相关分析及合成分析中蒙特卡洛检验方法及应用[J].南京气象学院学报,1997,20(3):355-358.
[20]	NORTH G R,BELL T L,CAHALAN R F.Sampling errors in the estimation of the empirical orthogonal functions[J].Mon Wea Rev,1982,110(7):699-706.
[21]	陈绍东,王谦谦,钱永甫.江南讯期降水基本气候特征及其与海温异常关系初探[J].热带气象学报,2003,19(3):260-268.
[22]	邓立平,王谦谦.华南前汛期(4～6月)降水异常特征及其与我国近海海温的关系[J].热带气象学报,2002,18(1):45-55.